posts/asylum-system-is-broken/

[giscus[bot]]

posts/asylum-system-is-broken/

And it's only going to get worse, because what once was a "non-binding agreement" is now being turned into coercion via legal and fiscal means, while those who speak up against it are being silenced and marginalized.

https://xayan.nu/posts/asylum-system-is-broken/

[mosakota-netizen]

This article is pure alarmism dressed up as analysis. It cherry picks quotes and ignores basic facts. EU border crossings actually dropped almost 40 percent in 2024, so the claim that numbers rise endlessly is false. UNHCR is not calling for open borders, it runs targeted resettlement for the most vulnerable. Walls and fences might stop crossings at one spot but routes just move somewhere else. And the European Court of Human Rights is not some activist cabal, it enforces treaties your own governments signed. Migration is driven by war, repression and poverty, not NGOs or professors. The whole piece relies on fearmongering instead of evidence.

[Xayan]

Yeah, I've heard it all already. And I am quite sure you have not actually read the post, only skimmed through, because I directly address many of these points.

For example: it doesn't matter if there is a reduction in numbers, which is temporary at best, because these people who do cross into Europe get to stay, regardless if their claim gets approved or denied (see the part about deportations).

Migration is driven by war, but migration to EUROPE specifically is driven by incentives and privileges for refugees + NGOs who enable it - plenty of it is described in UNHCR's own documents. And the laws surrounding it are influenced heavily by the blatantly unscientific and biased academic papers.

You're simply misrepresenting everything I said. At least this part is correct:

it enforces treaties your own governments signed

Yes, and that it the whole point. I argue that this law is fundamentally broken. I describe how it manifests as problems in real life, because of the false assumption that 3rd worlders will eventually adapt to the Western world - which is laughably naive, and ultimately destructive.

[mosakota-netizen]

You say I skimmed, but I actually addressed the core of your argument. Brushing off the drop in numbers as temporary does not work when the data show a 40 percent fall in 2024. That matters. And no, people do not just get to stay forever. Deportations are messy and uneven, but they do happen. If you are going to argue everyone stays, you need real numbers, not assumptions.

The idea that Europe is some special magnet because of privileges oversimplifies why people move. Most flee because of war, repression, or poverty, and they go where they think they will be safe and where they might already have family or a community. UNHCR’s documents are about targeted resettlement for vulnerable groups, not a secret plan to flood Europe. NGOs do not cause the wars or create the migration pressure, they deal with the fallout.

Dismissing academic research as biased does not land either. There is a huge range of peer reviewed work out there, some critical of migration and some supportive, but you cannot just write off all of it because it does not fit your conclusion.

And the claim that people from poorer countries will never adapt is the oldest line in the book. People said the same thing about Italians, Poles, Irish, and Jews when they arrived in Europe and America. History proved those predictions wrong. Integration is not automatic, but it happens when the right policies are in place.

So no, I did not misrepresent you. I pushed back on the exaggerations, the cherry picking, and the sweeping generalizations. Dismissing all counterpoints as skimming just makes it look like your argument cannot handle real scrutiny.

[Xayan]

Deportations are messy and uneven, but they do happen. If you are going to argue everyone stays, you need real numbers, not assumptions.

You say you did not skim, but...

• I did not say "everyone stays".
• I did quote the Migration Observatory saying deportations are messy and uneven, and that they do happen.
• I did provide real numbers: 76% of rejected claims - so 340k people in 2024 alone - get to remain.

I'm glad we both agree that the system sucks.

People said the same thing about Italians, Poles, Irish, and Jews when they arrived in Europe and America.

I'll tell you something that's considered common knowledge in Eastern Europe. As the borders opened in 2004, the most educated and skilled Poles largely stayed in Poland, while the other side of the Bell curve went to the UK, Ireland, Germany, etc. Within a decade crime rates fell massively, and the same happened in other Eastern European and Balkan countries after Schengen.

So it's not "people said" - it's a fact that those who migrate, especially from poorer countries, are not the most redeemable bunch. Where do you think jokes like "Come to Poland, your car is already there" come from? They were not a complete fabrication of supposedly racist Germans, I can assure you.

I pushed back on the exaggerations, the cherry picking, and the sweeping generalizations.

By literally ignoring the data provided in the post, and asserting "History proved those predictions wrong" while using the example of Italians - well known for ruling over the world of crime for a sizable chunk of American history.

If you truly think these papers are scientific, then pick one from the very diverse range I presented and point me towards: falsifiable hypotheses, non-circular reasoning without assumptions of moral authority, publicly available data, and reproducible results. You know, the so-called "scientific method".

[mosakota-netizen]

Fair enough that you did not say everyone stays. Still, that 76 percent stat you quote needs a lot more context before it can carry the argument.

First, what exactly does 76 percent mean. Does it include people still awaiting appeal. Does it count tolerated stays, people who later get subsidiary protection, family reunification, or work permits. Is it an EU wide average or dominated by a few countries with weak return enforcement. Show the source and the breakdown. Otherwise the number is a talking point, not proof.

Second, your Eastern Europe example is interesting but anecdotal. Yes some skilled people stayed and many others moved, and yes crime patterns shifted. But falling crime in sending countries is not definitive proof that migrants are inherently less redeemable. Remittances, demographic change, and labor market shifts also matter. Calling migrants from poorer countries the least redeemable bunch is an ugly generalization and not a substitute for data.

Third, pointing to Italians and organized crime in US history proves only that migration can produce short and sometimes long term challenges. It does not prove inevitable or permanent collapse. Many groups faced harsh prejudice at first and later integrated. If you want to make a sweeping causal claim you need longitudinal evidence of lasting social breakdown, not selective anecdotes.

Finally your challenge about scientific standards is fair. Pick one paper from your pile and I will examine its hypotheses, data, and reproducibility. I will then compare it with a peer reviewed study that reaches a different conclusion so we can see which method actually holds up. That is how you move from rhetoric to proof. Show the data and the method or admit the post rests more on impression than on rigorous evidence.

[lollercoastertycoon]

We have an aging demographic. Immigration is good to counter that. Immigration is good for the economy. And immigration is good for populists so they can whine about identity politics and how the whole system sucks because of immigrants. All this energy wasted in this writeup could have been put to building bridges an getting along witch each other. So my friend let's embrace and celebrate humanity and let's evolve out of this medieval conjecture.

[Xayan]

Way to miss the point. This is not a rant about immigration - I am criticizing the academics and politicians who perpetuate lies, while the migrants are just being used to push an agenda.

Embrace cultures within allowed boundaries of your utopian society all you want, but I live in the grim reality and don't feel obliged to have illegal migrants smuggled in under the guise of moral autofellatio.