From e49f74e8cd6d553f35e15dee68cf44221159851a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 2026 22:17:42 +0000
Subject: [PATCH 1/2] Refresh live Elo and regenerate projected bracket

Runs the daily pipeline: refreshes live Elo from eloratings.net and
regenerates the Monte Carlo simulation, projected bracket and README
block. Knockout ties remain model projections (no real Round-of-32 /
Round-of-16 results are recorded in the repo yet).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01GmtcBGn7eopeUJMJ41KC9S
---
 .../prediccion-mundial-2026/data/2026.tsv     | 128 +++++++-------
 .../data/backtest-matches.json                |   8 +-
 .../data/elo-mundial-2026.json                |   2 +-
 README.md                                     |   6 +-
 predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md                  |  10 +-
 predicciones/simulacion.json                  | 160 +++++++++---------
 6 files changed, 157 insertions(+), 157 deletions(-)

diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/2026.tsv b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/2026.tsv
index 811da49..161b21c 100644
--- a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/2026.tsv
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/2026.tsv
@@ -1,30 +1,30 @@
 −	1	ES	2177	1	2189	7	1947	19	1805	0	+12	0	+5	0	+20	+1	+65	+6	+154	+7	+239	787	341	302	144	466	138	183	1604	699	0	+5
 −	2	AR	2156	1	2172	5	1987	26	1751	0	+43	0	+43	0	+24	−1	+13	+4	+132	−1	+47	1116	381	419	316	617	228	271	2131	1141	0	+43
 −	3	FR	2143	1	2143	16	1795	40	1514	0	+62	0	+81	0	+88	0	+75	+1	+70	0	+123	945	475	341	129	480	270	195	1724	1277	0	+81
-−	4	EN	2076	1	2213	4	1983	17	1810	0	+56	0	+34	+2	+92	+4	+106	+1	+37	+7	+164	1167	509	525	133	689	215	263	2734	1123	0	+34
+−	4	EN	2076	1	2213	4	1983	17	1810	0	+56	0	+34	+2	+92	+4	+106	+1	+36	+7	+164	1167	509	525	133	689	215	263	2734	1123	0	+34
 −	5	CO	2003	3	2069	48	1621	102	1304	+2	+28	0	+5	+3	+53	−1	−42	+9	+98	+1	+51	655	185	229	241	270	205	180	852	743	0	+5
-−	6	PT	1995	2	2060	19	1797	41	1623	−1	+11	+1	+19	−2	−35	+3	+36	+2	−11	+4	+75	701	322	262	117	350	190	161	1234	784	+1	+19
+−	6	PT	1995	2	2060	19	1797	41	1623	−1	+11	+1	+19	−2	−35	+3	+36	+2	−11	+4	+74	701	322	262	117	350	190	161	1234	784	+1	+19
 −	7	BR	1993	1	2195	4	1998	20	1805	−2	+9	−1	+15	−2	−8	−1	−27	−6	−160	−2	+16	1072	373	346	353	675	173	224	2312	961	−1	+15
 −	8	NO	1972	6	1972	38	1623	85	1364	+4	+60	+3	+50	+6	+106	+27	+238	+28	+234	+44	+337	892	425	409	58	339	355	198	1389	1450	+3	+50
 −	9	NL	1971	1	2153	15	1848	55	1552	−1	+10	−1	+12	−2	−4	−2	−18	+2	+50	0	+47	906	430	358	118	467	240	199	1904	1149	−1	+12
-−	10	BE	1961	1	2157	24	1755	71	1503	+9	+94	+9	+111	+8	+114	0	+27	−8	−164	+4	+72	883	416	377	90	395	302	186	1619	1364	+9	+111
+−	10	BE	1961	1	2157	24	1755	70	1503	+9	+94	+9	+111	+8	+114	0	+27	−8	−164	+4	+72	883	416	377	90	395	302	186	1619	1364	+9	+111
 −	11	CH	1949	9	1949	27	1689	56	1485	+5	+60	+2	+52	+9	+105	+2	+46	+2	+35	+9	+147	901	426	392	83	322	373	206	1347	1487	+2	+52
-−	12	MA	1921	11	1923	43	1657	86	1510	+12	+100	+8	+79	+13	+109	+16	+148	+29	+240	+50	+346	735	319	219	197	368	165	202	1118	619	+8	+81
+−	12	MA	1921	11	1923	43	1658	86	1510	+12	+100	+8	+79	+13	+109	+16	+148	+29	+240	+50	+346	735	319	219	197	368	165	202	1118	619	+8	+81
 −	13	MX	1913	4	1985	20	1784	48	1498	+7	+56	+8	+79	+3	+52	+12	+128	+2	+19	−1	+6	1034	302	273	459	539	258	237	1839	1057	+8	+79
 −	14	DE	1907	1	2222	8	1910	25	1637	−3	−16	−2	−3	−4	−6	−3	−26	−2	−8	−10	−108	1051	470	416	165	608	225	218	2369	1238	−2	−3
-−	15	JP	1888	9	1925	61	1468	114	1126	−2	−16	+1	+10	+2	+31	+2	+31	+14	+117	+13	+134	840	332	207	301	410	258	172	1526	990	+1	+10
-−	16	HR	1882	4	2015	12	1881	28	1780	−6	−49	−7	−51	−7	−45	−4	−33	+3	+57	0	+34	404	158	167	79	212	86	106	702	411	−7	−51
+−	15	JP	1888	9	1925	61	1468	114	1126	−2	−16	+1	+10	+2	+30	+2	+31	+14	+117	+13	+134	840	332	207	301	410	258	172	1526	990	+1	+10
+−	16	HR	1881	4	2015	12	1881	28	1780	−6	−49	−6	−51	−7	−45	−4	−34	+3	+56	0	+33	404	158	167	79	212	86	106	702	411	−6	−51
 −	17	EC	1871	9	1938	64	1526	121	1183	−8	−62	−8	−62	−6	−34	−1	+1	+10	+89	−2	+12	604	183	212	209	186	256	162	726	908	−8	−62
 −	18	DK	1869	1	2074	20	1799	59	1541	0	−1	−1	+4	−3	+4	+1	+53	−9	−96	+11	+125	905	414	396	95	420	298	187	1652	1221	−1	+4
 −	18	IT	1869	1	2134	8	1915	23	1607	+3	+13	0	+10	−5	−13	−4	−21	−15	−219	−11	−80	903	407	325	171	481	177	245	1581	894	0	+10
-−	20	TR	1852	9	1910	43	1610	77	1358	−6	−50	−5	−28	+3	+16	+2	+48	+18	+122	−1	+37	673	290	301	82	265	252	156	953	975	−5	−28
-−	21	UY	1841	1	2104	12	1876	44	1636	−6	−51	−7	−49	−9	−60	−16	−185	−11	−93	−8	−53	1022	336	432	254	446	322	254	1613	1258	−7	−49
+−	20	TR	1852	9	1910	43	1610	77	1358	−6	−50	−5	−28	+3	+16	+2	+47	+18	+122	−1	+37	673	290	301	82	265	252	156	953	975	−5	−28
+−	21	UY	1841	1	2104	12	1877	44	1636	−6	−51	−7	−49	−9	−60	−16	−185	−11	−94	−8	−53	1022	336	432	254	446	322	254	1613	1258	−7	−49
 −	22	AT	1821	1	2070	20	1809	73	1549	+1	−6	+1	+3	−3	−24	−7	−55	+6	+44	+18	+108	870	432	383	55	372	312	186	1567	1330	+1	+3
-−	23	SN	1816	17	1879	56	1591	107	1387	−6	−63	+1	+4	+6	+31	+7	+49	+17	+122	+22	+142	710	221	260	229	320	196	194	979	681	+1	+9
+−	23	SN	1816	17	1879	56	1591	107	1386	−6	−63	+1	+4	+6	+31	+7	+49	+17	+122	+22	+142	710	221	260	229	320	196	194	979	681	+1	+9
 −	24	PY	1814	5	1956	23	1755	51	1619	−2	−19	−2	−19	0	−11	+26	+152	−3	+4	+11	+90	794	215	366	213	278	305	211	1009	1121	−2	−19
 −	25	AU	1795	11	1875	35	1671	77	1469	+1	+13	+6	+22	+5	+20	+2	+20	+10	+56	+17	+88	642	272	224	146	327	182	133	1294	724	+5	+22
-−	26	UA	1780	14	1872	31	1745	66	1561	+3	+13	−1	−22	+1	−19	−7	−36	−2	−15	+6	+42	340	134	146	60	154	91	95	478	358	−1	−22
-−	27	RU	1772	1	2083	24	1742	50	1449	0	−4	+2	−10	+1	−21	−1	−9	+10	+41	+16	+80	815	313	383	119	432	174	209	1482	779	+2	−10
+−	26	UA	1780	14	1873	31	1745	66	1561	+3	+13	−1	−22	+1	−19	−7	−36	−2	−15	+6	+42	340	134	146	60	154	91	95	478	358	−1	−22
+−	27	RU	1772	1	2083	24	1742	50	1449	0	−4	+2	−10	+1	−21	−1	−9	+10	+41	+16	+79	815	313	383	119	432	174	209	1482	779	+2	−10
 −	28	NG	1767	16	1826	38	1669	74	1500	+4	+15	+22	+83	+39	+191	+35	+181	+16	+105	+26	+142	717	241	264	212	332	180	205	1081	725	+22	+98
 −	29	IR	1764	13	1853	40	1658	79	1450	+2	+4	+5	+9	−3	−37	−8	−44	−7	−40	0	+20	673	223	195	255	384	132	157	1278	528	+5	+9
 −	30	DZ	1756	18	1807	48	1621	110	1386	+5	+13	0	−19	+13	+52	+22	+115	+1	−6	+17	+100	694	261	234	199	312	198	184	1062	712	+3	−1
@@ -39,52 +39,52 @@
 −	39	CI	1727	15	1863	45	1640	76	1476	+13	+51	+13	+63	+25	+140	+19	+104	+8	+84	−4	+3	697	241	238	218	351	168	178	1137	700	+20	+100
 −	40	KR	1723	16	1845	35	1687	84	1445	−8	−29	−12	−61	−9	−51	−7	−17	−10	−41	−19	−74	1055	353	256	446	574	223	258	1915	967	−12	−61
 −	41	CL	1717	2	2040	28	1678	59	1384	+3	+7	−2	−14	+6	+28	−1	−6	−16	−77	−39	−323	854	328	308	218	319	347	188	1197	1219	−2	−14
-−	42	KO	1714	37	1737	102	1421	119	1363	0	−6	+1	+1	+17	+105	+39	+209	+45	+232	+68	+315	109	49	40	20	43	43	23	156	147	+1	+1
+−	42	KO	1714	37	1737	102	1421	119	1363	0	−6	+1	+1	+17	+105	+39	+209	+44	+232	+68	+315	109	49	40	20	43	43	23	156	147	+1	+1
 −	43	HU	1710	1	2234	20	1835	74	1529	+2	+7	+2	+12	+1	+9	−20	−90	−10	−44	−6	−13	1035	469	492	74	489	324	222	2074	1527	+2	+12
 −	43	PL	1710	2	2084	30	1712	63	1521	−6	−19	−6	−25	+5	+28	−4	−19	−11	−51	−25	−113	921	397	410	114	400	296	225	1564	1243	−6	−25
-−	45	CD	1704	20	1782	62	1557	114	1387	+9	+49	+13	+65	+21	+121	+26	+151	+43	+228	+30	+172	553	166	225	162	227	174	152	841	648	+9	+47
-−	46	PE	1699	10	1916	35	1679	76	1485	+1	+4	−2	−8	−8	−44	−5	−10	−28	−129	−29	−142	710	266	253	191	229	305	176	860	991	−2	−8
-−	46	IE	1699	4	1918	24	1626	64	1237	+3	+8	+2	+11	+8	+66	+13	+80	+7	+77	−20	−60	743	378	305	60	262	287	194	979	1161	+2	+11
+−	45	CD	1704	20	1782	62	1557	114	1387	+9	+49	+13	+65	+21	+121	+26	+151	+42	+228	+30	+172	553	166	225	162	227	174	152	841	648	+9	+47
+−	46	PE	1700	10	1916	35	1679	76	1485	+1	+4	−2	−8	−8	−44	−5	−10	−28	−128	−29	−141	710	266	253	191	229	305	176	860	991	−2	−8
+−	47	IE	1699	4	1918	24	1626	64	1237	+2	+8	+1	+11	+7	+66	+12	+80	+6	+77	−21	−60	743	378	305	60	262	287	194	979	1161	+1	+11
 −	48	WA	1682	3	1909	22	1670	85	1403	−2	−16	−7	−33	−9	−44	−4	−1	−28	−140	−25	−96	735	346	357	32	236	332	167	919	1176	−7	−33
 −	48	SI	1682	26	1777	54	1625	77	1518	0	−12	−2	−13	−13	−70	−19	−89	+7	+65	+8	+69	321	145	146	30	116	118	87	401	381	−2	−13
-−	50	CZ	1680	1	2032	13	1854	50	1669	−10	−46	−11	−51	−14	−69	−13	−52	−33	−156	−11	−37	887	361	417	109	426	263	198	1631	1105	−11	−51
+−	50	CZ	1680	1	2032	13	1854	50	1669	−10	−46	−11	−51	−14	−69	−13	−51	−33	−156	−11	−37	887	361	417	109	426	263	198	1631	1105	−11	−51
 −	51	SK	1667	17	1775	40	1682	67	1567	+2	−6	−2	−20	0	+2	−8	−17	−8	−3	−24	−91	368	158	166	44	150	131	87	521	460	−2	−20
-−	52	PA	1658	27	1773	99	1363	143	1155	−16	−79	−16	−84	−19	−103	−14	−72	+19	+109	−6	−12	597	201	228	168	197	255	145	743	919	−16	−84
-−	53	GE	1654	31	1754	70	1553	104	1434	+2	+1	+2	+4	−12	−56	−11	−50	+22	+127	+34	+169	321	141	148	32	107	146	68	415	444	+2	+4
+−	52	PA	1658	27	1773	99	1363	143	1155	−16	−79	−16	−84	−19	−103	−14	−72	+19	+110	−6	−12	597	201	228	168	197	255	145	743	919	−16	−84
+−	53	GE	1654	31	1754	70	1554	104	1434	+2	+1	+2	+4	−12	−56	−11	−50	+22	+127	+34	+169	321	141	148	32	107	146	68	415	444	+2	+4
 −	54	IL	1647	23	1776	49	1621	83	1427	+5	+13	+6	+16	+1	+18	+12	+80	+3	+41	+11	+79	524	249	213	62	197	207	120	804	764	+4	+16
-−	55	RO	1639	5	1944	29	1717	65	1501	+5	+12	+1	−3	−6	−42	−10	−43	−6	+10	−17	−79	802	333	377	92	355	247	200	1306	1020	+1	−3
-−	56	UZ	1631	25	1766	59	1596	93	1428	−18	−96	−19	−104	−14	−76	−10	−50	+14	+81	−8	−19	370	130	129	111	180	115	75	638	413	−19	−104
-−	57	JO	1628	40	1701	111	1324	153	1095	−7	−62	−10	−61	0	+4	−4	−7	+32	+158	+17	+93	588	201	193	194	207	223	158	733	725	−10	−61
-−	58	BO	1621	21	1798	60	1509	93	1244	−1	−24	−7	−45	−6	−43	+16	+71	+5	+41	+6	+48	538	189	205	144	122	295	121	551	1060	−7	−45
+−	55	RO	1639	5	1945	29	1717	65	1501	+5	+12	+1	−3	−6	−42	−10	−43	−6	+10	−17	−79	802	333	377	92	355	247	200	1306	1020	+1	−3
+−	56	UZ	1631	25	1766	60	1596	93	1428	−18	−96	−19	−104	−14	−76	−10	−50	+14	+82	−8	−18	370	130	129	111	180	115	75	638	413	−19	−104
+−	57	JO	1628	40	1701	111	1323	153	1094	−7	−62	−10	−61	0	+4	−4	−7	+31	+158	+17	+93	588	201	193	194	207	223	158	733	725	−10	−61
+−	58	BO	1621	21	1798	60	1509	92	1244	−1	−24	−7	−45	−6	−43	+16	+71	+5	+41	+6	+48	538	189	205	144	122	295	121	551	1060	−7	−45
 −	59	CV	1619	58	1625	120	1302	146	1172	+13	+70	+13	+58	+19	+101	+9	+59	+35	+181	+25	+117	257	80	91	86	96	98	63	277	283	+14	+58
-−	60	AL	1616	38	1675	72	1504	116	1363	−4	−30	−8	−48	−4	−11	−4	−14	+9	+60	−7	−17	410	192	185	33	116	209	85	396	604	−8	−48
-−	61	CM	1613	14	1849	53	1604	80	1442	+1	0	0	−3	+2	+20	+3	+29	+5	+48	−5	0	661	184	247	230	287	172	202	952	712	+3	+19
-−	62	CR	1609	9	1866	36	1690	76	1479	−1	−5	−3	−24	−16	−84	−11	−52	−10	−17	−40	−177	789	259	280	250	355	243	191	1366	919	−5	−24
+−	60	AL	1616	38	1675	72	1504	116	1363	−4	−30	−8	−48	−4	−11	−4	−14	+9	+60	−7	−16	410	192	185	33	116	209	85	396	604	−8	−48
+−	61	CM	1613	14	1849	53	1604	80	1442	0	0	0	−3	+2	+20	+3	+29	+5	+48	−5	0	661	184	247	230	287	172	202	952	712	+3	+19
+−	62	CR	1608	9	1866	36	1690	76	1479	−1	−5	−3	−24	−16	−84	−11	−52	−10	−18	−40	−178	789	259	280	250	355	243	191	1366	919	−5	−24
 −	63	EI	1605	13	1852	40	1654	111	1396	+1	+5	0	+3	+6	+44	+15	+88	+2	+39	−14	−37	612	276	298	38	172	290	150	645	928	−1	+3
 −	63	BA	1605	20	1806	53	1626	90	1469	+3	+11	+6	+33	+14	+82	+26	+129	−12	−23	−38	−156	285	118	138	29	105	113	67	399	394	+6	+33
 −	65	SA	1596	29	1736	76	1499	125	1253	+6	+28	0	+4	+3	+28	−4	+8	−8	−10	+11	+69	842	324	151	367	396	248	198	1284	901	0	+4
 −	66	NM	1589	40	1667	74	1534	110	1401	+1	0	−1	−3	−13	−45	+9	+43	+2	+26	+36	+159	305	141	134	30	95	131	79	364	411	−1	−3
 −	67	ML	1588	42	1650	70	1523	129	1302	−2	−8	−3	−12	−5	−13	−7	−12	+6	+47	+1	+31	625	195	234	196	249	206	170	824	718	−4	−11
 −	68	GH	1570	10	1877	42	1650	101	1424	+14	+65	+12	+61	+17	+93	+8	+32	−7	−27	−18	−70	783	247	298	238	371	215	197	1250	826	+12	+61
-−	68	HN	1570	23	1789	63	1501	110	1331	+1	−1	+2	+3	−3	−15	+12	+60	−11	−36	+9	+44	668	212	217	239	263	232	173	964	859	+3	+3
+−	68	HN	1570	23	1789	63	1501	110	1331	+1	−1	+2	+3	−3	−15	+12	+60	−11	−36	+9	+45	668	212	217	239	263	232	173	964	859	+3	+3
 −	70	IS	1568	18	1841	81	1425	127	1258	−1	−3	+1	+2	+1	+18	−3	+7	−14	−44	−39	−174	527	216	251	60	160	263	104	635	885	+2	+2
 −	71	TN	1562	24	1757	47	1616	87	1438	−13	−74	−9	−52	−13	−51	−23	−109	−23	−75	0	+11	780	337	253	190	330	234	216	1107	857	−10	−53
-−	72	IQ	1561	24	1740	47	1622	96	1456	−9	−46	−4	−21	−1	+11	−23	−102	−19	−61	+10	+57	765	139	232	394	360	193	212	1205	722	−4	−21
-−	73	ZA	1560	7	1847	32	1707	99	1448	+6	+35	+4	+31	+3	+36	−4	+1	+9	+69	−15	−46	530	276	162	92	232	143	155	722	547	+1	+9
-−	74	AO	1542	52	1629	86	1456	161	1213	−1	−1	−1	−1	−14	−65	−2	−9	+39	+174	+83	+324	475	166	184	125	176	140	159	579	490	+1	−1
-−	75	AE	1540	37	1692	98	1396	163	981	0	0	0	0	−1	+3	+7	+38	+7	+49	−14	−43	674	287	141	246	263	238	173	933	831	+2	0
-−	76	FI	1536	14	1757	63	1500	120	1246	−2	−6	+4	+27	−6	−20	−19	−91	−37	−169	−14	−39	825	337	430	58	217	441	167	972	1699	+4	+27
-−	77	NZ	1534	29	1642	66	1500	102	1334	−9	−51	−10	−51	−16	−68	−12	−36	+9	+49	−5	−7	444	135	189	120	181	183	80	771	660	−10	−51
-−	78	BF	1529	56	1617	98	1402	137	1265	0	−1	−2	−5	+3	+27	+9	+46	−6	−16	+17	+69	493	154	188	151	170	192	131	614	677	−8	−42
+−	72	IQ	1561	19	1740	46	1629	96	1456	−9	−46	−4	−21	−1	+11	−23	−102	−19	−61	+10	+57	763	138	231	394	359	192	212	1200	717	−4	−21
+−	73	ZA	1560	7	1847	32	1707	99	1448	+6	+35	+4	+31	+3	+36	−4	+1	+9	+65	−15	−46	530	276	162	92	232	143	155	722	547	+1	+9
+−	74	AO	1542	52	1628	86	1456	161	1213	−1	−1	−1	−1	−14	−65	−2	−9	+39	+174	+83	+324	475	166	184	125	176	140	159	579	490	+1	−1
+−	75	AE	1540	37	1692	98	1396	163	981	0	0	0	0	−1	+3	+7	+38	+8	+49	−14	−43	674	287	141	246	263	238	173	933	831	+2	0
+−	76	FI	1536	14	1757	63	1500	120	1246	−2	−6	+4	+27	−6	−20	−19	−91	−37	−168	−14	−39	825	337	430	58	217	441	167	972	1699	+4	+27
+−	77	NZ	1534	29	1642	66	1500	103	1334	−9	−51	−10	−51	−16	−68	−12	−36	+8	+49	−5	−7	444	135	189	120	181	183	80	771	660	−10	−51
+−	78	BF	1529	56	1617	98	1403	137	1265	0	−1	−2	−5	+3	+27	+9	+46	−6	−16	+17	+69	493	154	188	151	170	192	131	614	677	−8	−42
 −	79	JM	1527	38	1700	83	1414	133	1222	−3	−8	−1	−1	−6	−19	−18	−61	−15	−52	−9	−26	719	272	268	179	280	272	167	961	942	−1	−1
-−	80	BY	1522	44	1666	80	1505	120	1349	+1	+9	+2	+26	+3	+30	+16	+89	+2	+31	−21	−62	308	105	158	45	91	137	80	348	445	+2	+26
+−	80	BY	1522	44	1665	80	1505	120	1349	+1	+9	+2	+26	+3	+30	+16	+89	+3	+31	−21	−62	308	105	158	45	91	137	80	348	445	+2	+26
 −	81	HT	1517	36	1674	81	1418	129	1265	−4	−15	−7	−25	+5	+50	+2	+16	−7	−21	+9	+41	566	181	196	189	247	201	118	964	769	−5	−25
-−	82	GT	1504	30	1642	68	1486	108	1382	−2	−10	−4	−24	−7	−21	+4	+19	−3	+4	+4	+15	628	205	180	243	225	237	166	878	858	−4	−24
+−	82	GT	1504	30	1642	68	1486	108	1382	−2	−10	−4	−24	−7	−21	+4	+19	−3	+4	+4	+14	628	205	180	243	225	237	166	878	858	−4	−24
 −	83	SY	1479	53	1618	86	1428	124	1253	0	−12	+1	−7	+10	+36	+17	+60	+8	+30	−2	−35	598	125	224	249	223	227	148	859	760	+1	−7
 −	83	OM	1479	53	1634	127	1212	181	782	+1	−11	0	−11	−1	−22	−6	−52	−5	−25	+8	+8	594	230	145	219	223	219	152	757	784	0	−11
-−	85	PS	1465	66	1483	121	1255	159	1156	+1	−4	+1	−4	+2	+5	+18	+57	+7	+17	+31	+113	292	19	113	160	84	128	80	370	446	+1	−4
+−	85	PS	1465	66	1483	121	1254	159	1154	+1	−4	+1	−4	+2	+5	+18	+57	+7	+17	+31	+113	292	19	113	160	84	128	80	370	446	+1	−4
 −	86	GN	1463	21	1772	72	1516	128	1302	0	−6	−1	−22	+5	+12	+2	−19	+9	+26	−6	−57	646	172	263	211	251	211	184	953	804	−1	−22
-−	87	ME	1460	34	1720	61	1596	94	1439	+2	+21	+2	+17	−7	−53	−17	−94	−11	−57	−18	−96	174	91	78	5	58	73	43	205	239	+2	+17
+−	87	ME	1461	34	1720	61	1596	94	1440	+2	+21	+2	+17	−7	−53	−17	−93	−11	−56	−18	−95	174	91	78	5	58	73	43	205	239	+2	+17
 −	88	BG	1458	7	1910	41	1632	98	1312	−3	−17	0	+5	+2	+6	−3	−30	−8	−41	−29	−126	781	299	400	82	286	300	195	1094	1152	0	+5
 −	89	LU	1450	24	1520	108	1256	191	978	+1	+14	+14	+55	0	−5	−10	−61	+18	+64	+58	+211	474	258	201	15	55	357	62	309	1224	+14	+55
 −	90	NS	1442	64	1486	87	1450	105	1426	−2	0	0	0	+4	0	+3	0	+3	0	+10	+1	16	5	3	8	8	6	2	28	22	0	0
@@ -95,38 +95,38 @@
 −	94	KD	1424	94	1424	100	1424	108	1403	+2	0	0	0	+3	0	+4	0	+6	0	+10	0	4	2	0	2	3	0	1	12	3	+1	0
 −	96	LY	1420	43	1617	82	1469	128	1321	+3	0	−4	−5	+13	+35	+8	+18	+31	+93	−7	−58	458	164	166	128	165	185	108	620	611	−3	−5
 −	97	GM	1419	88	1454	118	1309	144	1190	0	−4	−3	−5	+10	+33	+25	+72	+14	+48	+42	+138	299	108	100	91	81	136	82	319	433	−2	−5
-−	98	BH	1414	51	1634	109	1349	155	1075	+2	−4	−2	−4	−6	−35	−7	−41	−32	−151	+5	−13	637	218	159	260	223	248	166	780	826	−1	−4
-−	99	QA	1411	26	1771	93	1416	164	964	−4	−14	−7	−14	−20	−106	−44	−220	−54	−249	−26	−127	702	328	148	226	289	235	178	995	836	−6	−14
-−	100	BJ	1405	58	1540	109	1356	168	1130	−6	−24	−3	−5	−2	−2	+6	+8	−4	−26	+9	−1	354	129	142	83	87	182	85	366	623	−8	−23
+−	98	BH	1414	51	1634	109	1349	155	1074	+2	−4	−2	−4	−6	−35	−7	−41	−32	−151	+5	−13	637	218	159	260	223	248	166	780	826	−1	−4
+−	99	QA	1411	26	1771	93	1416	164	963	−4	−14	−7	−14	−20	−106	−44	−220	−54	−249	−26	−127	702	328	148	226	289	235	178	995	836	−6	−14
+−	100	BJ	1405	58	1540	109	1356	168	1131	−6	−24	−3	−5	−2	−2	+6	+8	−4	−26	+9	−1	354	129	142	83	87	182	85	366	623	−8	−23
 −	101	GA	1401	59	1593	95	1413	126	1268	0	0	−2	−4	−14	−59	−6	−34	−5	−30	−4	−45	462	184	154	124	159	174	129	551	567	−2	−4
 −	102	UG	1394	29	1625	75	1482	130	1306	0	0	+2	0	+9	+13	+13	+33	−12	−56	−17	−106	736	251	257	228	304	238	194	1108	887	+2	0
 −	103	TT	1386	11	1662	61	1505	125	1313	+1	−6	−2	−17	−5	−21	−1	−27	+16	+26	−38	−182	872	344	365	163	375	304	193	1446	1130	−2	−17
 −	103	FO	1386	61	1386	122	1253	169	1154	+3	+4	+4	+5	+44	+111	+49	+140	+41	+124	+47	+154	283	119	141	23	51	195	37	213	641	+5	+5
-−	105	NE	1382	98	1409	133	1239	159	1082	−2	−11	−5	−22	+20	+45	+48	+144	+44	+152	+38	+119	292	100	117	75	65	158	69	287	517	−5	−22
+−	105	NE	1382	98	1409	133	1239	159	1082	−2	−11	−5	−22	+20	+45	+48	+145	+45	+152	+38	+119	292	100	117	75	65	158	69	287	517	−5	−22
 −	106	MG	1380	68	1508	104	1366	167	1162	0	−2	+6	+12	+38	+96	+23	+54	+7	+12	+42	+144	357	120	121	116	136	143	78	494	536	+6	+12
 −	106	GQ	1380	61	1604	151	1159	189	1007	−1	−11	0	−3	−22	−100	−34	−171	+15	+28	+17	+53	196	80	64	52	56	96	44	182	288	+1	−3
 −	108	TG	1379	48	1603	90	1439	144	1263	+7	+20	+11	+36	+8	+8	+5	+9	+27	+91	0	−28	495	179	198	118	158	210	127	539	675	+11	+36
 −	109	TH	1376	67	1547	112	1318	140	1125	0	0	+3	+8	+13	+25	−12	−52	+24	+85	−8	−61	935	389	200	346	366	358	211	1487	1408	+3	+8
 −	110	KP	1375	17	1801	63	1566	131	1315	0	0	−2	0	+4	0	−4	−22	−2	−3	−28	−129	417	50	149	218	175	127	115	641	447	−1	0
-−	111	KM	1374	95	1434	186	942	206	830	+3	+11	−3	−1	−15	−52	+14	+31	+44	+158	+79	+407	159	29	35	95	41	81	37	145	246	−2	−1
+−	111	KM	1374	95	1434	185	942	206	830	+3	+11	−3	−1	−15	−52	+14	+31	+45	+158	+79	+407	159	29	35	95	41	81	37	145	246	−2	−1
 −	112	AM	1373	62	1588	102	1418	143	1243	−4	−6	−7	−16	−6	−14	−22	−88	−50	−210	−34	−148	283	115	132	36	66	158	59	283	539	−7	−16
 −	113	ZW	1372	43	1574	78	1462	146	1279	−1	+1	+7	+30	−12	−26	+23	+57	−8	−22	−3	−27	552	190	223	139	207	184	161	738	663	+7	+30
 −	113	ID	1372	39	1578	101	1361	179	1103	+14	+41	+9	+31	+7	+15	+14	+39	+65	+269	+48	+161	784	252	192	340	299	332	153	1317	1269	+10	+31
-−	115	ZM	1371	31	1709	60	1551	124	1344	−3	0	−4	0	−5	−13	+4	+20	−33	−120	−17	−73	879	282	360	237	393	261	225	1389	954	−4	0
+−	115	ZM	1371	31	1709	60	1551	124	1344	−3	0	−4	0	−5	−13	+4	+20	−26	−87	−17	−73	879	282	360	237	393	261	225	1389	954	−4	0
 −	116	KE	1363	53	1563	90	1379	140	1240	0	+7	+1	+19	−3	−13	−17	−59	−10	−24	+4	+23	781	291	283	207	294	293	194	1078	1062	+1	+19
 −	117	EE	1360	32	1541	94	1353	174	1088	+6	+21	−3	+1	0	−6	−4	−10	−15	−44	−25	−107	541	231	255	55	134	287	120	533	962	−3	+1
 −	118	VN	1351	62	1517	120	1298	177	1093	−1	0	+9	+22	+13	+30	+30	+79	−17	−70	+27	+95	525	174	131	220	222	200	103	922	771	+9	+22
-−	119	SD	1350	23	1707	90	1444	155	1226	−1	0	−4	0	−16	−46	−13	−47	−16	−51	+16	+61	553	154	204	195	187	225	141	628	730	−4	−5
+−	119	SD	1350	24	1707	90	1444	155	1226	−1	0	−4	0	−16	−46	−13	−47	−16	−51	+16	+61	553	154	204	195	187	225	141	628	730	−4	−5
 −	120	RE	1345	72	1395	125	1184	159	1047	0	0	−4	0	+3	0	+3	0	−8	−24	−7	−36	139	53	38	48	55	55	29	237	252	−4	0
 −	121	SV	1342	32	1607	72	1471	130	1322	0	0	+9	+18	−2	−20	−12	−46	−40	−154	−16	−79	685	208	209	268	226	305	154	860	1020	+9	+18
 −	121	MZ	1342	83	1495	116	1332	152	1210	−10	−30	−11	−30	−26	−90	−20	−74	+18	+64	+4	+18	444	166	177	101	139	194	111	466	585	−15	−45
 −	123	SL	1341	65	1552	104	1368	158	1185	−4	−7	−6	−3	+6	+16	+9	+20	+1	−5	−6	−10	337	116	141	80	98	150	89	331	474	−6	−3
 −	124	GP	1338	50	1530	91	1408	166	1179	0	0	+1	0	0	0	+5	+12	+24	+92	+16	+59	293	92	89	112	128	114	51	507	410	+1	0
 −	125	RW	1336	96	1461	144	1207	176	1035	0	0	+11	+28	+7	+16	+1	+1	+4	+11	+9	+45	290	107	100	83	90	126	74	298	364	+11	+28
-−	126	NI	1333	65	1373	146	1031	197	900	+3	+6	+2	+5	+3	+8	−6	−16	+24	+104	+18	+72	253	63	100	90	54	167	32	258	621	+2	+5
-−	127	KW	1332	27	1734	83	1468	143	1178	+1	+4	+1	+4	+13	+42	+1	+4	−18	−43	−34	−134	762	269	176	317	321	248	193	1198	880	+1	+4
+−	126	NI	1333	65	1373	146	1031	197	900	+3	+6	+2	+5	+3	+8	−6	−16	+25	+104	+18	+72	253	63	100	90	54	167	32	258	621	+2	+5
+−	127	KW	1332	27	1734	84	1467	143	1175	+1	+4	+1	+4	+13	+42	+1	+4	−18	−43	−34	−134	762	269	176	317	321	248	193	1198	880	+1	+4
 −	128	MR	1329	98	1424	155	1116	181	911	+5	+18	+6	+18	−2	−4	−5	−16	−24	−68	+8	+41	300	91	103	106	56	173	71	217	527	+6	+18
-−	129	AZ	1322	63	1551	107	1397	143	1257	−7	−18	−5	−17	−11	−43	−45	−169	−20	−53	−17	−67	324	116	152	56	67	176	81	265	545	−5	−17
+−	129	AZ	1322	63	1551	107	1396	143	1257	−7	−18	−5	−17	−11	−43	−45	−169	−20	−53	−17	−67	324	116	152	56	67	176	81	265	545	−5	−17
 −	130	ZN	1320	101	1366	145	1119	168	936	0	0	+1	0	+2	0	+4	0	0	−2	+7	+35	217	37	45	135	39	131	47	186	458	+1	0
 −	131	CY	1314	63	1575	102	1377	141	1249	+4	+13	+6	+12	+5	+15	+5	−1	−16	−51	−25	−106	429	237	186	6	84	271	74	387	932	+6	+12
 −	132	TZ	1313	65	1510	117	1295	169	1130	−1	0	−9	−27	−29	−83	−21	−64	0	+6	−8	−12	658	244	237	177	193	280	185	752	963	−12	−29
@@ -134,33 +134,33 @@
 −	134	LR	1304	70	1518	112	1342	154	1218	+3	+7	+4	+4	+16	+41	+16	+39	−14	−50	−12	−25	342	146	144	52	91	175	76	318	521	+4	+4
 −	135	NA	1303	97	1428	136	1272	168	1117	−1	0	−1	−8	−23	−77	−23	−69	−20	−62	−21	−73	304	102	121	81	77	135	92	295	424	−1	−8
 −	136	KG	1295	127	1332	155	1203	178	1095	+4	+4	−4	−18	−9	−37	+9	+13	+9	+39	+24	+83	192	49	74	69	55	105	32	208	337	−4	−18
-−	137	MY	1293	58	1547	122	1290	185	1054	+1	0	−5	−20	+2	+2	+9	+17	+20	+87	+38	+162	925	390	240	295	362	352	211	1512	1339	−5	−20
+−	137	MY	1293	58	1548	122	1290	185	1054	+1	0	−5	−20	+2	+2	+9	+17	+20	+87	+38	+162	925	390	240	295	362	352	211	1512	1339	−5	−20
 −	137	GY	1293	15	1525	104	1294	182	1043	+1	0	+10	+17	+11	+29	+10	+19	+34	+149	+17	+72	455	179	193	83	142	223	90	588	788	+10	+17
-−	139	LB	1288	77	1472	108	1333	164	1166	−13	−44	−13	−44	−11	−39	+1	−9	−22	−75	−24	−80	421	140	144	137	123	186	112	507	621	−13	−44
+−	139	LB	1288	79	1472	109	1328	164	1166	−13	−44	−13	−44	−11	−39	+1	−9	−22	−75	−24	−80	419	139	143	137	122	185	112	502	616	−13	−44
 −	139	LV	1288	41	1575	87	1399	155	1217	−4	−13	+4	+2	−4	−13	−7	−33	−1	+7	−51	−192	459	193	213	53	128	220	111	536	754	+4	+2
-−	141	ET	1287	39	1639	99	1394	154	1238	+3	+2	+7	+23	+4	+8	+3	+3	−13	−39	−12	−13	474	216	163	95	171	199	104	657	691	+7	+23
+−	141	ET	1287	39	1638	99	1394	154	1238	+3	+2	+7	+23	+4	+8	+3	+3	−13	−39	−12	−13	474	216	163	95	171	199	104	657	691	+7	+23
 −	142	NC	1286	50	1531	103	1356	176	1089	0	0	−2	−8	+1	+1	+13	+56	+1	+20	−10	−10	285	87	71	127	141	110	34	739	419	−2	−8
 −	143	BI	1285	85	1465	125	1286	168	1163	−1	−1	+8	+46	−5	−7	0	−4	+4	+38	−22	−51	241	52	89	100	74	112	55	274	334	+8	+46
 −	144	TJ	1284	75	1503	123	1334	164	1195	+1	0	−5	−12	−2	−3	−34	−96	−4	+15	+11	+64	212	57	84	71	80	86	46	305	297	−5	−12
 −	145	DO	1283	138	1295	167	1061	188	931	0	−1	−4	−10	−4	−6	+14	+75	+18	+112	+14	+66	190	86	64	40	69	89	32	301	307	−4	−10
 −	146	LT	1279	47	1662	92	1318	151	1050	−6	−12	0	+2	−9	−15	−29	−77	−15	−40	−47	−164	418	170	207	41	106	230	82	415	759	0	+2
-−	147	MD	1270	65	1556	110	1390	165	1169	+1	+8	−5	−18	−13	−49	−27	−79	+6	+51	−29	−80	302	115	146	41	60	172	70	247	523	−5	−18
-−	148	BW	1267	100	1438	150	1168	190	997	−1	0	−4	−18	−27	−85	−12	−48	−12	−20	−17	−31	368	166	136	66	98	166	104	311	490	−4	−18
-−	149	MT	1255	79	1435	118	1322	171	1155	+4	+18	−4	−23	+4	+5	+2	−1	+5	+37	+2	+24	456	246	183	27	66	314	76	298	1020	−4	−23
+−	147	MD	1270	65	1556	110	1390	165	1169	+1	+8	−5	−18	−13	−49	−27	−79	+7	+51	−29	−80	302	115	146	41	60	172	70	247	523	−5	−18
+−	148	BW	1267	100	1438	150	1167	190	996	−1	0	−4	−18	−27	−85	−12	−48	−12	−20	−17	−31	368	166	136	66	98	166	104	311	490	−4	−18
+−	149	MT	1255	79	1435	118	1322	171	1155	+4	+18	−4	−23	+4	+5	+2	−1	+6	+37	+2	+24	456	246	183	27	66	314	76	298	1020	−4	−23
 −	150	GW	1248	84	1415	126	1282	163	1178	−1	0	0	+4	−2	−16	−34	−112	−28	−103	−12	−35	215	66	64	85	58	104	53	215	320	0	+4
 −	151	CU	1239	21	1683	84	1439	161	1117	0	0	+2	+10	+4	+15	−10	−55	−11	−30	−24	−71	485	103	212	170	185	189	111	678	684	+2	+10
 −	151	MW	1239	48	1590	115	1327	153	1093	−1	−2	−2	−13	0	−17	−12	−63	−25	−97	−25	−77	700	306	245	149	232	265	203	817	902	−2	−13
 −	153	CF	1236	83	1417	124	1295	167	1177	−1	−2	−1	−2	−7	−42	−22	−88	−16	−47	−25	−65	164	32	67	65	36	94	34	181	326	−1	−2
 −	154	GF	1223	71	1396	125	1246	172	1109	0	0	0	0	+2	0	−12	−67	−14	−46	−13	−53	190	66	67	57	57	92	41	280	328	0	0
-−	155	YT	1216	149	1233	157	1202	174	1124	0	0	+1	0	+4	0	+3	0	−3	−8	+2	−2	41	2	11	28	13	17	11	55	59	+1	0
+−	155	YT	1216	149	1233	157	1202	174	1124	0	0	+1	0	+4	0	+3	0	−2	−8	+2	−2	41	2	11	28	13	17	11	55	59	+1	0
 −	156	TM	1209	67	1547	117	1358	161	1205	0	0	−1	−8	−4	−42	+4	+4	−23	−82	−23	−83	187	42	76	69	71	82	34	288	281	−1	−8
 −	157	CG	1207	33	1690	83	1470	159	1207	0	0	+2	0	−1	−16	−8	−61	−40	−156	−61	−248	474	180	188	106	173	186	115	679	662	+2	0
 −	158	ER	1201	142	1246	164	1158	185	1056	+1	0	+6	+62	+8	+62	+8	+62	+15	+62	+27	+127	86	20	28	38	17	50	19	61	137	+6	+62
-−	159	LS	1198	125	1325	151	1179	179	1102	−1	−7	−3	−18	−1	−24	−2	−29	−3	−10	−3	−21	354	113	147	94	70	180	104	280	580	−3	−18
+−	159	LS	1198	125	1325	151	1179	179	1102	−1	−7	−3	−18	−1	−24	−2	−29	−10	−43	−3	−21	354	113	147	94	70	180	104	280	580	−3	−18
 −	160	YE	1195	109	1367	144	1212	178	1078	+2	+44	+3	+44	+12	+74	+12	+93	+5	+25	+3	−12	295	56	87	152	66	173	56	304	573	+3	+44
 −	161	PH	1179	27	1355	135	1070	220	681	0	+11	+1	+23	+8	+46	+22	+143	+11	+38	−19	−89	396	110	126	160	99	237	60	431	1020	+1	+23
 −	162	TI	1177	49	1591	103	1386	171	1137	−2	0	−2	0	−1	0	+1	−10	−2	−16	−10	−53	254	58	71	125	136	82	36	693	383	−2	0
-−	163	SW	1148	119	1347	153	1168	181	1062	0	0	−5	−62	−4	−68	−7	−80	−2	−37	−44	−199	324	123	131	70	71	158	95	297	542	−5	−62
+−	163	SW	1148	119	1347	153	1168	181	1062	0	0	−5	−62	−4	−68	−7	−80	−2	−33	−44	−199	324	123	131	70	71	158	95	297	542	−5	−62
 −	164	VC	1141	58	1501	110	1322	185	1030	0	0	−3	−30	+3	+4	+15	+75	+9	+2	+14	+29	365	138	135	92	131	150	84	566	648	−3	−30
 −	165	PG	1135	136	1223	165	1091	188	1017	+3	0	+1	0	+9	+31	+12	+56	+5	−15	+8	−1	165	30	43	92	54	80	31	352	356	+1	0
 −	165	PR	1135	100	1167	169	937	203	829	0	−3	+2	+1	+3	+1	0	−13	+19	+77	+19	+50	196	73	67	56	46	121	29	229	491	+2	+1
@@ -169,14 +169,14 @@
 −	169	BM	1117	91	1432	128	1284	177	1083	+1	−2	+3	−3	−7	−51	0	−7	−23	−131	−5	−89	236	106	82	48	79	112	45	375	417	+3	−3
 −	169	VU	1117	111	1263	156	1104	191	960	+2	+4	+5	+4	+12	+72	+4	+26	−6	−54	−3	−70	227	54	51	122	71	124	32	404	485	+5	+4
 −	171	SS	1109	163	1155	178	1088	188	1018	+1	0	−4	−25	−2	−24	−3	−18	+11	+30	+5	−14	81	18	29	34	13	52	16	55	145	−4	−25
-−	172	FJ	1104	78	1466	129	1246	175	1069	+1	−4	+3	−4	−18	−122	−11	−92	−21	−123	−23	−130	288	106	65	117	126	106	56	647	463	+3	−4
-−	173	HK	1101	60	1534	123	1288	180	1058	−4	−20	−8	−35	−9	−47	+5	+30	−6	−61	−7	−86	514	183	152	179	178	234	102	816	873	−8	−35
+−	172	FJ	1104	78	1466	129	1246	175	1069	+1	−4	+3	−4	−18	−122	−11	−92	−20	−123	−23	−130	288	106	65	117	126	106	56	647	463	+3	−4
+−	173	HK	1101	60	1534	123	1288	180	1058	−4	−20	−8	−35	−9	−46	+5	+30	−6	−61	−7	−86	514	183	152	179	178	234	102	816	873	−8	−35
 −	174	GD	1098	46	1548	102	1370	186	1060	0	−1	−3	−24	−1	−8	0	+15	−5	−56	+3	−19	310	115	116	79	103	129	78	490	561	−3	−24
 −	175	AD	1080	169	1130	182	1050	195	952	0	+3	+4	−3	+2	+14	−4	−30	+11	+52	+18	+120	231	92	106	33	15	184	32	77	543	+4	−3
 −	176	MU	1073	36	1634	108	1334	195	930	0	0	+1	−18	−1	−22	+7	+37	+13	+66	+4	−30	359	124	151	84	100	174	85	450	572	+1	−18
 −	176	TD	1073	107	1318	136	1243	176	1073	0	0	−4	−47	−13	−78	−12	−80	−14	−107	−30	−180	182	45	59	78	35	105	42	165	340	−4	−47
 −	176	BZ	1073	61	1201	139	1114	183	1034	0	0	0	−32	+2	+15	+6	+31	+1	−52	−10	−114	129	44	44	41	32	74	23	138	245	0	−32
-−	179	SB	1054	110	1378	147	1183	179	1041	0	0	−1	−36	−8	−72	−25	−183	−11	−103	−7	−85	223	59	62	102	94	92	37	480	428	−1	−36
+−	179	SB	1054	110	1378	147	1183	179	1041	0	0	−1	−36	−8	−72	−26	−183	−11	−103	−7	−85	223	59	62	102	94	92	37	480	428	−1	−36
 −	180	MF	1043	155	1120	187	983	214	755	0	0	+6	+39	+2	−1	+14	+102	+26	+190	+26	+178	86	18	36	32	33	44	9	136	191	+6	+39
 −	181	ST	1035	153	1116	174	1056	190	985	0	0	−1	−21	+3	−3	0	−11	+2	−29	0	−66	82	24	36	22	11	60	11	59	213	−1	−21
 −	182	KN	1030	88	1388	138	1174	186	1002	0	0	+2	+24	+3	+4	−6	−51	−24	−167	−52	−269	252	121	80	51	104	101	47	431	396	+2	+24
@@ -184,11 +184,11 @@
 −	184	JS	1005	184	1005	188	1004	190	995	0	0	+1	0	+2	0	+3	0	+6	0	+3	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	4	3	+1	0
 −	185	LC	1004	67	1353	126	1240	192	978	0	0	−2	−5	−2	−35	−10	−78	0	−27	−3	−93	264	89	108	67	90	132	42	361	485	−2	−5
 −	186	EH	996	186	996	189	996	192	996	+1	0	+1	0	+1	0	+2	0	+5	0	+2	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	+1	0
-−	187	MM	984	34	1675	124	1244	199	896	+1	+2	+5	+39	+3	+33	+10	+66	+1	−27	−1	−83	555	120	139	296	219	232	104	899	962	+5	+39
+−	187	MM	984	34	1676	124	1244	199	896	+1	+2	+5	+39	+3	+33	+10	+66	+1	−27	−1	−83	555	120	139	296	219	232	104	899	962	+5	+39
 −	188	AW	979	51	1444	125	1198	204	880	+1	−1	+3	+29	+8	+61	+1	−12	+9	+69	+10	+63	208	83	81	44	52	112	44	298	471	+3	+29
 −	188	SO	979	132	1218	166	1072	207	835	+2	0	+1	+18	+9	+68	+13	+84	+10	+71	+19	+135	150	10	48	92	15	112	23	78	375	+1	+18
 −	190	SX	975	164	977	187	909	213	758	+1	0	0	+19	+3	+43	+14	+122	+23	+211	+14	+95	75	16	25	34	23	39	13	107	194	0	+19
-−	191	MS	971	116	1021	191	642	236	526	+1	0	−3	0	−3	0	−6	−43	+5	+32	+36	+327	74	15	26	33	18	48	8	76	235	−3	0
+−	191	MS	972	116	1022	191	642	236	526	+1	0	−3	0	−3	0	−6	−43	+5	+32	+36	+328	74	15	26	33	18	48	8	76	235	−3	0
 −	192	AF	961	96	1166	167	919	210	778	−9	−50	−11	−74	−13	−96	−25	−169	−16	−174	−21	−192	168	8	67	93	38	92	38	153	340	−11	−74
 −	193	GL	945	163	1035	185	974	197	945	0	0	−1	0	−2	0	−1	0	−1	−17	−2	−17	22	2	7	13	5	16	1	35	50	−1	0
 −	194	BD	942	150	1115	181	980	210	796	+2	+10	0	+2	+5	+35	+2	+18	+13	+93	+8	+58	327	92	97	138	88	166	73	300	584	0	+2
@@ -200,12 +200,12 @@
 −	200	AG	895	102	1319	145	1178	201	895	0	0	+1	0	−2	−14	−10	−92	−34	−268	−47	−333	285	116	101	68	95	136	54	394	491	+1	0
 −	200	LI	895	143	1242	167	1113	201	895	−3	−9	0	−5	0	−10	−9	−72	−21	−197	−35	−297	259	115	125	19	19	208	32	104	726	0	−5
 −	202	NP	893	167	1008	190	889	209	729	−1	0	−5	−26	−7	−33	−4	−12	−7	−48	−2	−11	295	74	91	130	68	174	53	247	665	−5	−26
-−	203	KH	871	93	1390	157	1058	221	677	+1	+27	0	+27	+4	+36	+2	+28	+5	+33	+8	+101	318	82	93	143	73	200	45	367	816	0	+27
+−	203	KH	871	93	1390	157	1058	221	677	+1	+27	0	+27	+3	+36	+2	+28	+5	+33	+8	+101	318	82	93	143	73	200	45	367	816	0	+27
 −	204	SC	853	157	1123	182	987	205	842	−2	0	0	+11	−1	+2	−1	−6	−4	−54	−13	−109	190	51	58	81	26	131	33	144	425	0	+11
 −	205	LK	836	77	1045	161	933	227	648	+2	+9	+5	+53	+5	+54	+13	+142	+21	+172	+8	+76	285	70	89	126	58	177	50	278	693	+5	+53
-−	206	SM	825	165	1015	195	917	212	770	0	−11	0	−8	−2	−20	+6	+52	+3	−2	−3	−58	228	110	110	8	3	213	12	44	895	0	−8
+−	206	SM	825	165	1015	195	917	212	770	−1	−11	0	−8	−2	−20	+6	+52	+3	−2	−3	−58	228	110	110	8	3	213	12	44	895	0	−8
 −	207	TW	822	15	1767	144	1169	213	760	+1	0	−5	−44	−5	−59	−7	−78	−9	−86	+1	+15	339	96	109	134	96	191	52	465	788	−5	−44
-−	208	BQ	817	81	1130	150	1036	208	817	−3	−20	0	−6	−2	−19	−2	−9	−15	−141	−19	−173	104	19	52	33	24	68	12	116	257	0	−6
+−	208	BQ	816	81	1130	150	1036	208	816	−3	−20	0	−6	−2	−19	−2	−10	−15	−142	−19	−174	104	19	52	33	24	68	12	116	257	0	−6
 −	209	MV	801	162	1174	191	885	210	712	−6	−47	−4	−40	−4	−41	−7	−82	−15	−152	−12	−135	241	65	82	94	67	135	39	289	538	−4	−40
 −	210	KY	800	153	1140	183	1000	210	795	0	−5	−1	−6	−2	−20	−2	−24	−7	−91	−14	−146	129	60	39	30	26	78	25	125	313	−1	−6
 −	211	HG	782	208	805	211	783	213	773	0	0	0	0	−1	0	0	0	−1	+9	−2	−13	4	0	0	4	1	2	1	8	10	0	0
diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/backtest-matches.json b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/backtest-matches.json
index 5d43f91..9614453 100644
--- a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/backtest-matches.json
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/backtest-matches.json
@@ -53,8 +53,8 @@
     "exact": true,
     "predScore": "1-1",
     "p1": 0.5767237828343034,
-    "pX": 0.25832693095676523,
-    "p2": 0.1649492862089314
+    "pX": 0.2583269309567652,
+    "p2": 0.16494928620893137
   },
   {
     "group": "A",
@@ -168,7 +168,7 @@
     "predScore": "2-0",
     "p1": 0.6397348695901068,
     "pX": 0.2371109633580704,
-    "p2": 0.1231541670518227
+    "p2": 0.12315416705182271
   },
   {
     "group": "B",
@@ -1344,7 +1344,7 @@
     "hit": true,
     "exact": true,
     "predScore": "0-2",
-    "p1": 0.12196219514229964,
+    "p1": 0.12196219514229965,
     "pX": 0.23639331540889114,
     "p2": 0.6416444894488093
   },
diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/elo-mundial-2026.json b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/elo-mundial-2026.json
index 0ecc9a2..7bfefcd 100644
--- a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/elo-mundial-2026.json
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/elo-mundial-2026.json
@@ -474,7 +474,7 @@
         "2026": 13
       },
       "in_index": true,
-      "elo_live": 1882,
+      "elo_live": 1881,
       "rank_live": 16,
       "en_name": "Croatia"
     },
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 48de703..cee1d85 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -22,16 +22,16 @@ _Last auto-update: **2026-06-28**. Backtest: the model gets the 1X2 right in **6
 
 **🏆 Projected champion (most-likely bracket): Spain.** Projected final: **Spain 2-1 Argentina**.
 
-**Most likely finalists (Monte Carlo):** Argentina vs Spain (16.5% of simulations).
+**Most likely finalists (Monte Carlo):** Argentina vs Spain (16.4% of simulations).
 
 | Team | Reaches final | Champion |
 |---|---|---|
 | Argentina | 44.4% | 25.5% |
 | Spain | 37.1% | 23.4% |
-| France | 34.2% | 20.3% |
+| France | 34.2% | 20.4% |
 | England | 19.7% | 9.3% |
 | Colombia | 10.4% | 3.8% |
-| Belgium | 6.5% | 2.3% |
+| Belgium | 6.6% | 2.3% |
 
 Full detail (our group-stage predictions vs the results, the match-by-match bracket) in [**predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md**](predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md).
 <!-- PRED:END -->
diff --git a/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md b/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md
index cfba193..20ebce2 100644
--- a/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md
+++ b/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md
@@ -256,24 +256,24 @@ Probability of reaching the Round of 32 (top 2 per group + 8 best third-placed t
 
 From 50,000 simulations of the whole tournament (official bracket, live Elo).
 
-**Most likely final: Argentina vs Spain** (occurs in 16.5% of simulations).
+**Most likely final: Argentina vs Spain** (occurs in 16.4% of simulations).
 
 | Team | Reaches final | Champion |
 |---|---|---|
 | Argentina | 44.4% | 25.5% |
 | Spain | 37.1% | 23.4% |
-| France | 34.2% | 20.3% |
+| France | 34.2% | 20.4% |
 | England | 19.7% | 9.3% |
 | Colombia | 10.4% | 3.8% |
-| Belgium | 6.5% | 2.3% |
+| Belgium | 6.6% | 2.3% |
 | Brazil | 6.5% | 2.3% |
-| Norway | 6.5% | 2.2% |
+| Norway | 6.5% | 2.3% |
 | Netherlands | 6.1% | 2.2% |
 | Portugal | 5.9% | 2.3% |
 
 **Most likely finals:**
 
-- Argentina vs Spain — 16.5%
+- Argentina vs Spain — 16.4%
 - Argentina vs France — 15.2%
 - England vs Spain — 7.3%
 - England vs France — 6.8%
diff --git a/predicciones/simulacion.json b/predicciones/simulacion.json
index 8f11b54..8810997 100644
--- a/predicciones/simulacion.json
+++ b/predicciones/simulacion.json
@@ -653,8 +653,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 37.144,
-      "champ": 23.366
+      "final": 37.116,
+      "champ": 23.35
     },
     {
       "iso": "ARG",
@@ -664,8 +664,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 44.412,
-      "champ": 25.546
+      "final": 44.38,
+      "champ": 25.498
     },
     {
       "iso": "FRA",
@@ -675,8 +675,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 34.212,
-      "champ": 20.338
+      "final": 34.208,
+      "champ": 20.352
     },
     {
       "iso": "GBR",
@@ -687,7 +687,7 @@
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
       "final": 19.732,
-      "champ": 9.314
+      "champ": 9.326
     },
     {
       "iso": "BRA",
@@ -697,8 +697,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.538,
-      "champ": 2.336
+      "final": 6.542,
+      "champ": 2.346
     },
     {
       "iso": "PRT",
@@ -708,8 +708,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 5.854,
-      "champ": 2.312
+      "final": 5.872,
+      "champ": 2.31
     },
     {
       "iso": "COL",
@@ -719,8 +719,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 10.43,
-      "champ": 3.836
+      "final": 10.428,
+      "champ": 3.84
     },
     {
       "iso": "NLD",
@@ -730,8 +730,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.142,
-      "champ": 2.222
+      "final": 6.134,
+      "champ": 2.228
     },
     {
       "iso": "ECU",
@@ -741,8 +741,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 1.078,
-      "champ": 0.258
+      "final": 1.072,
+      "champ": 0.252
     },
     {
       "iso": "DEU",
@@ -752,8 +752,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 2.446,
-      "champ": 0.714
+      "final": 2.45,
+      "champ": 0.718
     },
     {
       "iso": "NOR",
@@ -763,8 +763,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.49,
-      "champ": 2.232
+      "final": 6.522,
+      "champ": 2.252
     },
     {
       "iso": "HRV",
@@ -774,8 +774,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 1.076,
-      "champ": 0.29
+      "final": 1.068,
+      "champ": 0.288
     },
     {
       "iso": "JPN",
@@ -785,8 +785,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 1.414,
-      "champ": 0.348
+      "final": 1.412,
+      "champ": 0.354
     },
     {
       "iso": "BEL",
@@ -796,8 +796,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.546,
-      "champ": 2.274
+      "final": 6.552,
+      "champ": 2.302
     },
     {
       "iso": "CHE",
@@ -807,8 +807,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.398,
-      "champ": 1.452
+      "final": 4.39,
+      "champ": 1.45
     },
     {
       "iso": "MEX",
@@ -818,8 +818,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.416,
-      "champ": 1.504
+      "final": 4.42,
+      "champ": 1.486
     },
     {
       "iso": "SEN",
@@ -829,8 +829,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.744,
-      "champ": 0.146
+      "final": 0.754,
+      "champ": 0.152
     },
     {
       "iso": "PRY",
@@ -840,8 +840,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.544,
-      "champ": 0.08
+      "final": 0.546,
+      "champ": 0.082
     },
     {
       "iso": "AUT",
@@ -851,7 +851,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.338,
+      "final": 0.336,
       "champ": 0.07
     },
     {
@@ -862,8 +862,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 3.23,
-      "champ": 0.932
+      "final": 3.216,
+      "champ": 0.908
     },
     {
       "iso": "CAN",
@@ -873,8 +873,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.756,
-      "champ": 0.146
+      "final": 0.764,
+      "champ": 0.15
     },
     {
       "iso": "AUS",
@@ -884,8 +884,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.568,
-      "champ": 0.084
+      "final": 0.572,
+      "champ": 0.086
     },
     {
       "iso": "DZA",
@@ -895,7 +895,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.18,
+      "final": 0.184,
       "champ": 0.018
     },
     {
@@ -906,8 +906,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.864,
-      "champ": 0.13
+      "final": 0.878,
+      "champ": 0.132
     },
     {
       "iso": "SWE",
@@ -917,7 +917,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.086,
+      "final": 0.09,
       "champ": 0.014
     },
     {
@@ -928,8 +928,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.188,
-      "champ": 0.028
+      "final": 0.19,
+      "champ": 0.026
     },
     {
       "iso": "CIV",
@@ -939,7 +939,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.084,
+      "final": 0.082,
       "champ": 0.004
     },
     {
@@ -950,7 +950,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.064,
+      "final": 0.066,
       "champ": 0.006
     },
     {
@@ -983,7 +983,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.004,
+      "final": 0.002,
       "champ": 0
     },
     {
@@ -1007,8 +1007,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 44.412,
-      "champ": 25.546
+      "final": 44.38,
+      "champ": 25.498
     },
     {
       "iso": "ESP",
@@ -1018,8 +1018,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 37.144,
-      "champ": 23.366
+      "final": 37.116,
+      "champ": 23.35
     },
     {
       "iso": "FRA",
@@ -1029,8 +1029,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 34.212,
-      "champ": 20.338
+      "final": 34.208,
+      "champ": 20.352
     },
     {
       "iso": "GBR",
@@ -1041,7 +1041,7 @@
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
       "final": 19.732,
-      "champ": 9.314
+      "champ": 9.326
     },
     {
       "iso": "COL",
@@ -1051,8 +1051,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 10.43,
-      "champ": 3.836
+      "final": 10.428,
+      "champ": 3.84
     },
     {
       "iso": "BEL",
@@ -1062,8 +1062,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.546,
-      "champ": 2.274
+      "final": 6.552,
+      "champ": 2.302
     },
     {
       "iso": "BRA",
@@ -1073,8 +1073,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.538,
-      "champ": 2.336
+      "final": 6.542,
+      "champ": 2.346
     },
     {
       "iso": "NOR",
@@ -1084,8 +1084,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.49,
-      "champ": 2.232
+      "final": 6.522,
+      "champ": 2.252
     },
     {
       "iso": "NLD",
@@ -1095,8 +1095,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.142,
-      "champ": 2.222
+      "final": 6.134,
+      "champ": 2.228
     },
     {
       "iso": "PRT",
@@ -1106,8 +1106,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 5.854,
-      "champ": 2.312
+      "final": 5.872,
+      "champ": 2.31
     },
     {
       "iso": "MEX",
@@ -1117,8 +1117,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.416,
-      "champ": 1.504
+      "final": 4.42,
+      "champ": 1.486
     },
     {
       "iso": "CHE",
@@ -1128,34 +1128,34 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.398,
-      "champ": 1.452
+      "final": 4.39,
+      "champ": 1.45
     }
   ],
   "final_mas_probable": [
     {
       "final": "Argentina vs Spain",
-      "prob": 16.464
+      "prob": 16.448
     },
     {
       "final": "Argentina vs France",
-      "prob": 15.216
+      "prob": 15.198
     },
     {
       "final": "England vs Spain",
-      "prob": 7.338
+      "prob": 7.336
     },
     {
       "final": "England vs France",
-      "prob": 6.79
+      "prob": 6.794
     },
     {
       "final": "Colombia vs Spain",
-      "prob": 3.946
+      "prob": 3.93
     },
     {
       "final": "Colombia vs France",
-      "prob": 3.482
+      "prob": 3.492
     }
   ],
   "prediccion_finalistas": "Argentina vs Spain"

From ec5c810df1a21b5f849d11ff3b663ff4452672d6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 2026 23:53:31 +0000
Subject: [PATCH 2/2] Record real Round-of-32 and Round-of-16 results; predict
 quarter-finals

The knockout stage through the Round of 16 has been played. Add the real
results in a new data/knockout-resultados-2026.json (24 ties, verified
against the official bracket topology and the final group tables) and make
the projection and Monte Carlo condition on them:

- proyeccion.mjs: real winners advance, so the projected bracket now starts
  from the eight real quarter-finalists (France, Morocco, Spain, Belgium,
  Norway, England, Argentina, Switzerland). Each played tie also records the
  model's pre-match pick and whether it hit.
- simular.mjs: fixed rounds are no longer sampled, so finalist/champion
  probabilities reflect the real bracket (eliminated teams drop to 0%).
- genera-predicciones.mjs: new "knockout so far: predictions vs results"
  section (19/24 correct) and a projected-rest-of-bracket section from the
  quarter-finals; finalist table lists only teams still alive.

Projected quarter-finals: France-Morocco, Spain-Belgium, Norway-England,
Argentina-Switzerland. Projected champion: Spain.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01GmtcBGn7eopeUJMJ41KC9S
---
 .../skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/SKILL.md   |   8 +-
 .../data/knockout-resultados-2026.json        |  37 +++
 .../genera-predicciones.mjs                   |  69 ++++--
 .../prediccion-mundial-2026/proyeccion.mjs    |  38 ++-
 .../prediccion-mundial-2026/simular.mjs       |  15 +-
 README.es.md                                  |   7 +-
 README.md                                     |  25 +-
 predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md                  | 109 +++++----
 predicciones/simulacion.json                  | 224 +++++++++---------
 9 files changed, 336 insertions(+), 196 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 .claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/knockout-resultados-2026.json

diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/SKILL.md b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/SKILL.md
index 766431a..e789d2f 100644
--- a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/SKILL.md
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/SKILL.md
@@ -17,6 +17,10 @@ World Cup, using the **Elo rating** of each team plus a **recent-form** adjustme
 - `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json` — the 12 groups, played results and the
   remaining fixtures.
 - `data/knockout-2026.json` — official Round-of-32 to Final bracket structure.
+- `data/knockout-resultados-2026.json` — real results of the knockout rounds already
+  played (Round of 32, Round of 16, …). When present, the projection and the Monte
+  Carlo condition on them: the real winners advance and only the unplayed rounds are
+  predicted/simulated. Add new results here as each round finishes.
 - `data/elo-series-completo-1901-2026.js` — full historical series (195 teams).
 
 **Source:** World Football Elo Ratings (eloratings.net), via the El Atlas chart.
@@ -95,4 +99,6 @@ recent results via `--formA/--formB`. Tested: it does not improve accuracy.
 ## Updating the data
 
 `bash scripts/actualizar.sh` (from repo root) refreshes the live Elo and regenerates
-everything. New match results go into `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json`.
+everything. New group-stage results go into `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json`; new
+knockout results go into `data/knockout-resultados-2026.json` (keyed by bracket match
+id, e.g. `M97`).
diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/knockout-resultados-2026.json b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/knockout-resultados-2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ed0a9ad
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/knockout-resultados-2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+{
+  "meta": {
+    "descripcion": "Resultados REALES de la fase eliminatoria del Mundial 2026 (32avos y octavos jugados).",
+    "fuente": "Recopilado y cruzado multi-fuente (Yahoo Sports, Al Jazeera, Olympics.com, Wikipedia). Verificado contra la topologia oficial del bracket (knockout-2026.json) y las tablas finales de grupos.",
+    "as_of": "2026-07-08",
+    "generado": "2026-07-08",
+    "nota": "home/away = orientacion real del partido; 'pens' = tanda de penales [local, visitante] cuando hubo empate en el tiempo reglamentario; 'winner' = ISO3 del equipo que avanzo. Cuartos, semis y final todavia no se jugaron.",
+    "rondas_jugadas": ["Round of 32", "Round of 16"]
+  },
+  "played": [
+    { "id": "M73", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "CAN", "away": "ZAF", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "CAN" },
+    { "id": "M74", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "PRY", "away": "DEU", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "pens": [4, 3], "winner": "PRY" },
+    { "id": "M75", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "MAR", "away": "NLD", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "pens": [3, 2], "winner": "MAR" },
+    { "id": "M76", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "BRA", "away": "JPN", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "BRA" },
+    { "id": "M77", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "FRA", "away": "SWE", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "FRA" },
+    { "id": "M78", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "NOR", "away": "CIV", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "NOR" },
+    { "id": "M79", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "MEX", "away": "ECU", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "MEX" },
+    { "id": "M80", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "GBR", "away": "COD", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "GBR" },
+    { "id": "M81", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "USA", "away": "BIH", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "USA" },
+    { "id": "M82", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "BEL", "away": "SEN", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "BEL" },
+    { "id": "M83", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "PRT", "away": "HRV", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "PRT" },
+    { "id": "M84", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "ESP", "away": "AUT", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "ESP" },
+    { "id": "M85", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "CHE", "away": "DZA", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "CHE" },
+    { "id": "M86", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "ARG", "away": "CPV", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "ARG" },
+    { "id": "M87", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "COL", "away": "GHA", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "COL" },
+    { "id": "M88", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "EGY", "away": "AUS", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "pens": [4, 2], "winner": "EGY" },
+
+    { "id": "M89", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "FRA", "away": "PRY", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "FRA" },
+    { "id": "M90", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "MAR", "away": "CAN", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "MAR" },
+    { "id": "M91", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "NOR", "away": "BRA", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "NOR" },
+    { "id": "M92", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "GBR", "away": "MEX", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "GBR" },
+    { "id": "M93", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "ESP", "away": "PRT", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "ESP" },
+    { "id": "M94", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "BEL", "away": "USA", "home_goals": 4, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "BEL" },
+    { "id": "M95", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "ARG", "away": "EGY", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "ARG" },
+    { "id": "M96", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "CHE", "away": "COL", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "pens": [4, 3], "winner": "CHE" }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/genera-predicciones.mjs b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/genera-predicciones.mjs
index a1a7f6e..ead1dfc 100755
--- a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/genera-predicciones.mjs
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/genera-predicciones.mjs
@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ const eloOf = (iso) => byIso[iso].elo_live ?? byIso[iso].elo_2026;
 const en = (iso) => byIso[iso].en_name ?? byIso[iso].name;
 
 const pct = (x) => x.toFixed(1) + "%";
-const date = fix.meta.generado;
+const date = proj.koMeta?.as_of ?? fix.meta.generado;
 
 // Predicted scoreline + pick for an upcoming match (live Elo).
 function predRow(homeIso, awayIso) {
@@ -89,23 +89,60 @@ if (fix.remaining_fixtures.length === 0 && existsSync(btMatchesPath)) {
   }
 }
 
-// 2) Projected knockout bracket (match by match)
-md += `## 2) Projected knockout bracket (match by match)\n\n`;
 const groupsDone = fix.remaining_fixtures.length === 0;
-md += `Single most-likely path: ${groupsDone ? "the **final** group standings" : "real group results + the most-likely score for the remaining group games"} `;
-md += `${groupsDone ? "set the bracket" : "decide the standings"}; then every knockout tie is predicted with a decisive `;
-md += `score and a winner (in reality many ties go to extra time/penalties; "(tight)" marks the `;
-md += `near coin-flips).\n\n`;
+const realTies = proj.ties.filter((t) => t.real);
+const predTies = proj.ties.filter((t) => !t.real);
+
+// 2) Knockout stage so far: our predictions vs the real results
+let secNum = 2;
+if (realTies.length) {
+  const koHits = realTies.filter((t) => t.hit).length;
+  md += `## ${secNum}) Knockout stage so far: our predictions vs the results\n\n`;
+  md += `The rounds already played are shown with their **real result** and the model's `;
+  md += `pre-match **pick** (favourite by live Elo; knockout ties have no draw). The **Hit** `;
+  md += `column marks where the pick matched who actually advanced. Penalty shootouts are noted `;
+  md += `as _(pens x-y)_.\n\n`;
+  md += `**Scoreboard: the model called ${koHits} of ${realTies.length} knockout ties right `;
+  md += `(${((100 * koHits) / realTies.length).toFixed(1)}%)** so far. ✓ = correct, ✗ = miss.\n\n`;
+  let cr = "";
+  for (const t of realTies) {
+    if (t.round !== cr) {
+      md += `\n### ${t.round}\n\n`;
+      md += `| Match | Result | Advanced | Our pick | Hit |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n`;
+      cr = t.round;
+    }
+    const score = `${t.score}${t.pens ? ` (pens ${t.pens})` : ""}`;
+    md += `| ${t.home} vs ${t.away} | **${score}** | ${t.winner} | ${t.pick} | ${t.hit ? "✓" : "✗"} |\n`;
+  }
+  md += `\n`;
+  secNum++;
+}
+
+// 3) Projected rest of the bracket (match by match)
+const projTitle = realTies.length ? "Projected rest of the bracket (from the quarter-finals)" : "Projected knockout bracket (match by match)";
+md += `## ${secNum}) ${projTitle}\n\n`;
+if (realTies.length) {
+  md += `Single most-likely path from the **eight real quarter-finalists**: every remaining tie is `;
+  md += `predicted with live Elo (decisive score + winner; in reality many go to extra time/penalties, `;
+  md += `"(tight)" marks the near coin-flips).\n\n`;
+} else {
+  md += `Single most-likely path: ${groupsDone ? "the **final** group standings" : "real group results + the most-likely score for the remaining group games"} `;
+  md += `${groupsDone ? "set the bracket" : "decide the standings"}; then every knockout tie is predicted with a decisive `;
+  md += `score and a winner (in reality many ties go to extra time/penalties; "(tight)" marks the `;
+  md += `near coin-flips).\n\n`;
+}
 let curRound = "";
-for (const t of proj.ties) {
+for (const t of predTies) {
   if (t.round !== curRound) { md += `\n### ${t.round}\n\n`; curRound = t.round; }
   md += `- **${t.home} ${t.score} ${t.away}** → advances **${t.winner}**${t.tight ? " _(tight)_" : ""}\n`;
 }
 md += `\n### 🏆 Projected champion: **${proj.champion}**\n\n`;
 md += `Projected final: ${proj.final.home} ${proj.final.score} ${proj.final.away} (winner ${proj.final.winner}, without the actual result).\n\n`;
+secNum++;
 
-// 3) Who advances (Monte Carlo probabilities)
-md += `## 3) Who advances? Group probabilities\n\n`;
+// Who advances (Monte Carlo probabilities)
+md += `## ${secNum}) Who advances? Group probabilities\n\n`;
+secNum++;
 md += `Probability of reaching the Round of 32 (top 2 per group + 8 best third-placed teams), `;
 md += `from ${sim.meta.simulaciones.toLocaleString("en")} Monte Carlo runs. ✓ = group already decided.\n\n`;
 for (const g of Object.keys(sim.grupos)) {
@@ -118,13 +155,14 @@ for (const g of Object.keys(sim.grupos)) {
   md += `\n`;
 }
 
-// 4) Finalist probabilities
-md += `## 4) Finalist probabilities (Monte Carlo)\n\n`;
-md += `From ${sim.meta.simulaciones.toLocaleString("en")} simulations of the whole tournament (official bracket, live Elo).\n\n`;
+// Finalist probabilities
+md += `## ${secNum}) Finalist probabilities (Monte Carlo)\n\n`;
+md += `From ${sim.meta.simulaciones.toLocaleString("en")} simulations${realTies.length ? " conditioned on the real results so far (the eight real quarter-finalists)" : " of the whole tournament (official bracket, live Elo)"}.\n\n`;
 md += `**Most likely final: ${sim.prediccion_finalistas}** `;
 md += `(occurs in ${pct(sim.final_mas_probable[0].prob)} of simulations).\n\n`;
 md += `| Team | Reaches final | Champion |\n|---|---|---|\n`;
-for (const r of sim.finalistas.slice(0, 10)) md += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
+const finalistRows = sim.finalistas.filter((r) => r.final > 0);
+for (const r of (finalistRows.length ? finalistRows : sim.finalistas).slice(0, 10)) md += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
 md += `\n**Most likely finals:**\n\n`;
 for (const p of sim.final_mas_probable) md += `- ${p.final} — ${pct(p.prob)}\n`;
 md += `\n> Finalist probabilities are low and tightly bunched: the model has NO strong favorite, `;
@@ -142,7 +180,8 @@ resumen += `Projected final: **${proj.final.home} ${proj.final.score} ${proj.fin
 resumen += `**Most likely finalists (Monte Carlo):** ${sim.prediccion_finalistas} `;
 resumen += `(${pct(sim.final_mas_probable[0].prob)} of simulations).\n\n`;
 resumen += `| Team | Reaches final | Champion |\n|---|---|---|\n`;
-for (const r of sim.finalistas.slice(0, 6)) resumen += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
+const resumenRows = sim.finalistas.filter((r) => r.final > 0);
+for (const r of (resumenRows.length ? resumenRows : sim.finalistas).slice(0, 6)) resumen += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
 resumen += `\nFull detail (${groupsDone ? "our group-stage predictions vs the results" : "every group, every upcoming match"}, the match-by-match bracket) in `;
 resumen += `[**predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md**](predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md).\n`;
 resumen += `<!-- PRED:END -->`;
diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/proyeccion.mjs b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/proyeccion.mjs
index 71869f7..14db18e 100644
--- a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/proyeccion.mjs
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/proyeccion.mjs
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@
  * This is the "predicted bracket" (one concrete path). For probabilities
  * (who is LIKELY to reach the final), see simular.mjs (Monte Carlo).
  */
-import { readFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { readFileSync, existsSync } from "node:fs";
 import { fileURLToPath } from "node:url";
 import { dirname, join } from "node:path";
 import { loadData, predictFromEff, PARAMS } from "./model.mjs";
@@ -18,6 +18,16 @@ export function proyectar() {
   const elo = loadData();
   const fix = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "grupos-resultados-2026.json"), "utf8"));
   const bracket = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "knockout-2026.json"), "utf8"));
+  // Resultados REALES de eliminatorias ya jugadas (opcional). Si existen, se usan
+  // para avanzar de ronda (la proyeccion continua desde los equipos verdaderos).
+  const koPath = join(__dir, "data", "knockout-resultados-2026.json");
+  const koResults = {};
+  let koMeta = null;
+  if (existsSync(koPath)) {
+    const ko = JSON.parse(readFileSync(koPath, "utf8"));
+    koMeta = ko.meta || null;
+    for (const r of ko.played || []) koResults[r.id] = r;
+  }
   const byIso = Object.fromEntries(elo.equipos.map((t) => [t.iso3, t]));
   const HOSTS = new Set(["MEX", "CAN", "USA"]);
   const ha = (iso) => (HOSTS.has(iso) ? PARAMS.HOME_ADV : 0);
@@ -114,10 +124,32 @@ export function proyectar() {
       const home = /^M\d+$/.test(m.home) ? winners[m.home] : resolveSlot(m.home);
       const away = /^M\d+$/.test(m.away) ? winners[m.away] : resolveSlot(m.away);
       if (home == null || away == null) { winners[m.id] = home || away; continue; }
+
+      // Partido ya jugado: usar resultado REAL y comparar con lo que el modelo
+      // habria predicho (pick pre-partido con Elo en vivo).
+      const res = koResults[m.id];
+      if (res) {
+        const real = new Set([res.home, res.away]);
+        if (!real.has(home) || !real.has(away)) {
+          throw new Error(`Resultado real de ${m.id} (${res.home} vs ${res.away}) no coincide con el bracket (${home} vs ${away}).`);
+        }
+        winners[m.id] = res.winner;
+        const pick = predKO(res.home, res.away).winner; // favorito del modelo
+        ties.push({
+          round: roundNames[ri], id: m.id, real: true,
+          home: name(res.home), away: name(res.away),
+          score: `${res.home_goals}-${res.away_goals}`,
+          pens: res.pens ? `${res.pens[0]}-${res.pens[1]}` : null,
+          winner: name(res.winner),
+          pick: name(pick), hit: pick === res.winner,
+        });
+        continue;
+      }
+
       const r = predKO(home, away);
       winners[m.id] = r.winner;
       ties.push({
-        round: roundNames[ri], id: m.id,
+        round: roundNames[ri], id: m.id, real: false,
         home: name(home), away: name(away),
         score: `${r.a}-${r.b}`, tight: r.tight,
         winner: name(r.winner),
@@ -133,5 +165,5 @@ export function proyectar() {
     equipos: tables[g].map((t, i) => ({ pos: i + 1, name: t.name, pts: t.pts, gd: t.gd })),
   };
 
-  return { standings, projectedGroupMatches, ties, roundNames, final: finalTie, champion };
+  return { standings, projectedGroupMatches, ties, roundNames, final: finalTie, champion, koMeta };
 }
diff --git a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/simular.mjs b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/simular.mjs
index 9cdebdd..aeb68c3 100755
--- a/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/simular.mjs
+++ b/.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/simular.mjs
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
  *
  * Usa elo_live (eloratings.net) para los partidos futuros. Heurística orientativa.
  */
-import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from "node:fs";
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync, existsSync } from "node:fs";
 import { fileURLToPath } from "node:url";
 import { dirname, join } from "node:path";
 import { loadData, predictFromEff, autoForm, PARAMS } from "./model.mjs";
@@ -22,6 +22,15 @@ const ROOT = join(__dir, "..", "..", "..");
 const elo = loadData();
 const fix = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "grupos-resultados-2026.json"), "utf8"));
 const bracket = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "knockout-2026.json"), "utf8"));
+// Resultados REALES de eliminatorias ya jugadas: si existen, la simulacion se
+// condiciona a ellos (los ganadores reales avanzan; solo se muestrean las rondas
+// aun no jugadas), de modo que las probabilidades reflejen el bracket verdadero.
+const KO_RESULTS = (() => {
+  const p = join(__dir, "data", "knockout-resultados-2026.json");
+  if (!existsSync(p)) return {};
+  const ko = JSON.parse(readFileSync(p, "utf8"));
+  return Object.fromEntries((ko.played || []).map((r) => [r.id, r.winner]));
+})();
 const byIso = Object.fromEntries(elo.equipos.map((t) => [t.iso3, t]));
 const HOSTS = new Set(["MEX", "CAN", "USA"]);
 const ha = (iso) => (HOSTS.has(iso) ? PARAMS.HOME_ADV : 0);
@@ -161,8 +170,10 @@ function simulate(rnd) {
     for (const m of round) {
       const a = winnerOf(m.home, rnd), b = winnerOf(m.away, rnd);
       if (a == null || b == null) { alive[m.id] = a || b; continue; }
-      alive[m.id] = knockoutWinner(a, b, rnd);
       if (m.id === bracket.final_id) finalists = [a, b];
+      // Ronda ya jugada: el ganador real avanza (no se muestrea).
+      if (KO_RESULTS[m.id]) { alive[m.id] = KO_RESULTS[m.id]; continue; }
+      alive[m.id] = knockoutWinner(a, b, rnd);
     }
   }
   return { tables, thirds, bestThirdGroups, finalists, champion: alive[bracket.final_id] };
diff --git a/README.es.md b/README.es.md
index 5841fd8..98597da 100644
--- a/README.es.md
+++ b/README.es.md
@@ -82,8 +82,11 @@ bash scripts/actualizar.sh
 ```
 
 Baja el Elo en vivo de eloratings.net, refresca todo y regenera las predicciones.
-Un **GitHub Action** lo corre **todos los días**. Los resultados de partidos nuevos
-se agregan a `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json` (único paso manual).
+Un **GitHub Action** lo corre **todos los días**. Los resultados nuevos se agregan
+a mano: los de fase de grupos en `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json` y los de
+eliminatorias en `data/knockout-resultados-2026.json` (por id de llave del cuadro).
+Cuando hay resultados de eliminatorias, la proyección y el Monte Carlo se condicionan
+a ellos y solo predicen las rondas que faltan jugar.
 
 ---
 
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index cee1d85..6115da7 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -18,20 +18,20 @@ The point of the case study isn't "beating the World Cup": it's showing, with da
 ## 🔮 Current predictions
 
 <!-- PRED:START -->
-_Last auto-update: **2026-06-28**. Backtest: the model gets the 1X2 right in **61.1%** of 72 matches played (random ≈ 33%)._
+_Last auto-update: **2026-07-08**. Backtest: the model gets the 1X2 right in **61.1%** of 72 matches played (random ≈ 33%)._
 
 **🏆 Projected champion (most-likely bracket): Spain.** Projected final: **Spain 2-1 Argentina**.
 
-**Most likely finalists (Monte Carlo):** Argentina vs Spain (16.4% of simulations).
+**Most likely finalists (Monte Carlo):** Argentina vs Spain (23.4% of simulations).
 
 | Team | Reaches final | Champion |
 |---|---|---|
-| Argentina | 44.4% | 25.5% |
-| Spain | 37.1% | 23.4% |
-| France | 34.2% | 20.4% |
-| England | 19.7% | 9.3% |
-| Colombia | 10.4% | 3.8% |
-| Belgium | 6.6% | 2.3% |
+| Argentina | 49.9% | 26.3% |
+| Spain | 46.5% | 28.4% |
+| France | 39.8% | 22.4% |
+| England | 29.3% | 12.4% |
+| Norway | 11.7% | 3.5% |
+| Switzerland | 9.2% | 2.6% |
 
 Full detail (our group-stage predictions vs the results, the match-by-match bracket) in [**predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md**](predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md).
 <!-- PRED:END -->
@@ -131,10 +131,13 @@ the predictions and this README. A **GitHub Action**
 ([`.github/workflows/actualizar.yml`](.github/workflows/actualizar.yml)) runs it
 **every day** during the World Cup and commits the changes.
 
-**New match results:** add them to
+**New match results:** group-stage games go in
 [`data/grupos-resultados-2026.json`](.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/grupos-resultados-2026.json)
-(`played_matches` field), moving them out of `remaining_fixtures`. That's the only
-manual step; the rest is automatic.
+(`played_matches` field, moving them out of `remaining_fixtures`); knockout games go in
+[`data/knockout-resultados-2026.json`](.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/knockout-resultados-2026.json)
+(`played` field, keyed by bracket match id). When knockout results are present, the
+projection and the Monte Carlo condition on them, predicting only the rounds not yet
+played. That's the only manual step; the rest is automatic.
 
 ---
 
diff --git a/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md b/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md
index 20ebce2..2b45bc0 100644
--- a/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md
+++ b/predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Predictions · 2026 FIFA World Cup
 
-> Auto-generated on 2026-06-28. **This is an experiment, do NOT bet.** See [DISCLAIMER](../DISCLAIMER.md).
+> Auto-generated on 2026-07-08. **This is an experiment, do NOT bet.** See [DISCLAIMER](../DISCLAIMER.md).
 
 **Model reliability (backtest over 72 matches already played):** the model gets the 1X2 result right **61.1%** of the time (random ≈ 33%, "higher-Elo team wins" ≈ 61.1%). Exact scoreline 13.9%. Everything below inherits that margin of error, which **grows every round** (the finalist predictions are low-confidence). The most likely scoreline is shown for every match: useful as an "expected result", not a certainty.
 
@@ -85,47 +85,58 @@ The group stage is over: all **72 matches** have been played. Each one was predi
 | 2026-06-27 | L | Panama vs England | **0-2** | England | 0-2 | ✓ |
 | 2026-06-27 | L | Croatia vs Ghana | **2-1** | Croatia | 2-0 | ✓ |
 
-## 2) Projected knockout bracket (match by match)
+## 2) Knockout stage so far: our predictions vs the results
 
-Single most-likely path: the **final** group standings set the bracket; then every knockout tie is predicted with a decisive score and a winner (in reality many ties go to extra time/penalties; "(tight)" marks the near coin-flips).
+The rounds already played are shown with their **real result** and the model's pre-match **pick** (favourite by live Elo; knockout ties have no draw). The **Hit** column marks where the pick matched who actually advanced. Penalty shootouts are noted as _(pens x-y)_.
+
+**Scoreboard: the model called 19 of 24 knockout ties right (79.2%)** so far. ✓ = correct, ✗ = miss.
 
 
 ### Round of 32
 
-- **South Africa 0-2 Canada** → advances **Canada**
-- **Germany 2-1 Paraguay** → advances **Germany**
-- **Netherlands 2-1 Morocco** → advances **Netherlands**
-- **Brazil 2-1 Japan** → advances **Brazil**
-- **France 2-0 Sweden** → advances **France**
-- **Ivory Coast 0-2 Norway** → advances **Norway**
-- **Mexico 1-0 Ecuador** → advances **Mexico**
-- **England 2-0 DR Congo** → advances **England**
-- **United States 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina** → advances **United States**
-- **Belgium 1-0 Senegal** → advances **Belgium**
-- **Portugal 1-0 Croatia** → advances **Portugal**
-- **Spain 2-0 Austria** → advances **Spain**
-- **Switzerland 1-0 Algeria** → advances **Switzerland**
-- **Argentina 2-0 Cape Verde** → advances **Argentina**
-- **Colombia 2-0 Ghana** → advances **Colombia**
-- **Australia 2-1 Egypt** → advances **Australia**
+| Match | Result | Advanced | Our pick | Hit |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Canada vs South Africa | **1-0** | Canada | Canada | ✓ |
+| Paraguay vs Germany | **1-1 (pens 4-3)** | Paraguay | Germany | ✗ |
+| Morocco vs Netherlands | **1-1 (pens 3-2)** | Morocco | Netherlands | ✗ |
+| Brazil vs Japan | **2-1** | Brazil | Brazil | ✓ |
+| France vs Sweden | **3-0** | France | France | ✓ |
+| Norway vs Ivory Coast | **2-1** | Norway | Norway | ✓ |
+| Mexico vs Ecuador | **2-0** | Mexico | Mexico | ✓ |
+| England vs DR Congo | **2-1** | England | England | ✓ |
+| United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | **2-0** | United States | United States | ✓ |
+| Belgium vs Senegal | **3-2** | Belgium | Belgium | ✓ |
+| Portugal vs Croatia | **2-1** | Portugal | Portugal | ✓ |
+| Spain vs Austria | **3-0** | Spain | Spain | ✓ |
+| Switzerland vs Algeria | **2-0** | Switzerland | Switzerland | ✓ |
+| Argentina vs Cape Verde | **3-2** | Argentina | Argentina | ✓ |
+| Colombia vs Ghana | **1-0** | Colombia | Colombia | ✓ |
+| Egypt vs Australia | **1-1 (pens 4-2)** | Egypt | Australia | ✗ |
 
 ### Round of 16
 
-- **Germany 0-2 France** → advances **France**
-- **Canada 0-1 Netherlands** → advances **Netherlands**
-- **Brazil 2-1 Norway** → advances **Brazil** _(tight)_
-- **Mexico 1-2 England** → advances **England**
-- **Portugal 0-1 Spain** → advances **Spain**
-- **United States 0-1 Belgium** → advances **Belgium**
-- **Argentina 2-0 Australia** → advances **Argentina**
-- **Switzerland 1-2 Colombia** → advances **Colombia**
+| Match | Result | Advanced | Our pick | Hit |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| France vs Paraguay | **1-0** | France | France | ✓ |
+| Morocco vs Canada | **3-0** | Morocco | Morocco | ✓ |
+| Norway vs Brazil | **2-1** | Norway | Brazil | ✗ |
+| England vs Mexico | **3-2** | England | England | ✓ |
+| Spain vs Portugal | **1-0** | Spain | Spain | ✓ |
+| Belgium vs United States | **4-1** | Belgium | Belgium | ✓ |
+| Argentina vs Egypt | **3-2** | Argentina | Argentina | ✓ |
+| Switzerland vs Colombia | **0-0 (pens 4-3)** | Switzerland | Colombia | ✗ |
+
+## 3) Projected rest of the bracket (from the quarter-finals)
+
+Single most-likely path from the **eight real quarter-finalists**: every remaining tie is predicted with live Elo (decisive score + winner; in reality many go to extra time/penalties, "(tight)" marks the near coin-flips).
+
 
 ### Quarter-finals
 
-- **France 1-0 Netherlands** → advances **France**
+- **France 1-0 Morocco** → advances **France**
 - **Spain 1-0 Belgium** → advances **Spain**
-- **Brazil 1-2 England** → advances **England**
-- **Argentina 1-0 Colombia** → advances **Argentina**
+- **Norway 1-2 England** → advances **England**
+- **Argentina 1-0 Switzerland** → advances **Argentina**
 
 ### Semi-finals
 
@@ -140,7 +151,7 @@ Single most-likely path: the **final** group standings set the bracket; then eve
 
 Projected final: Spain 2-1 Argentina (winner Spain, without the actual result).
 
-## 3) Who advances? Group probabilities
+## 4) Who advances? Group probabilities
 
 Probability of reaching the Round of 32 (top 2 per group + 8 best third-placed teams), from 50,000 Monte Carlo runs. ✓ = group already decided.
 
@@ -252,32 +263,30 @@ Probability of reaching the Round of 32 (top 2 per group + 8 best third-placed t
 | 3 | Ghana | 3 | 4 | +0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
 | 4 | Panama | 3 | 0 | -4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
 
-## 4) Finalist probabilities (Monte Carlo)
+## 5) Finalist probabilities (Monte Carlo)
 
-From 50,000 simulations of the whole tournament (official bracket, live Elo).
+From 50,000 simulations conditioned on the real results so far (the eight real quarter-finalists).
 
-**Most likely final: Argentina vs Spain** (occurs in 16.4% of simulations).
+**Most likely final: Argentina vs Spain** (occurs in 23.4% of simulations).
 
 | Team | Reaches final | Champion |
 |---|---|---|
-| Argentina | 44.4% | 25.5% |
-| Spain | 37.1% | 23.4% |
-| France | 34.2% | 20.4% |
-| England | 19.7% | 9.3% |
-| Colombia | 10.4% | 3.8% |
-| Belgium | 6.6% | 2.3% |
-| Brazil | 6.5% | 2.3% |
-| Norway | 6.5% | 2.3% |
-| Netherlands | 6.1% | 2.2% |
-| Portugal | 5.9% | 2.3% |
+| Argentina | 49.9% | 26.3% |
+| Spain | 46.5% | 28.4% |
+| France | 39.8% | 22.4% |
+| England | 29.3% | 12.4% |
+| Norway | 11.7% | 3.5% |
+| Switzerland | 9.2% | 2.6% |
+| Belgium | 7.9% | 2.7% |
+| Morocco | 5.8% | 1.7% |
 
 **Most likely finals:**
 
-- Argentina vs Spain — 16.4%
-- Argentina vs France — 15.2%
-- England vs Spain — 7.3%
-- England vs France — 6.8%
-- Colombia vs Spain — 3.9%
-- Colombia vs France — 3.5%
+- Argentina vs Spain — 23.4%
+- Argentina vs France — 19.7%
+- England vs Spain — 13.4%
+- England vs France — 11.8%
+- Norway vs Spain — 5.5%
+- France vs Norway — 4.7%
 
 > Finalist probabilities are low and tightly bunched: the model has NO strong favorite, and the exact bracket pairings after the Round of 32 are the least certain part. Treat as indicative.
diff --git a/predicciones/simulacion.json b/predicciones/simulacion.json
index 8810997..d563946 100644
--- a/predicciones/simulacion.json
+++ b/predicciones/simulacion.json
@@ -653,8 +653,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 37.116,
-      "champ": 23.35
+      "final": 46.512,
+      "champ": 28.436
     },
     {
       "iso": "ARG",
@@ -664,8 +664,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 44.38,
-      "champ": 25.498
+      "final": 49.85,
+      "champ": 26.264
     },
     {
       "iso": "FRA",
@@ -675,8 +675,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 34.208,
-      "champ": 20.352
+      "final": 39.77,
+      "champ": 22.368
     },
     {
       "iso": "GBR",
@@ -686,8 +686,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 19.732,
-      "champ": 9.326
+      "final": 29.324,
+      "champ": 12.42
     },
     {
       "iso": "BRA",
@@ -697,8 +697,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.542,
-      "champ": 2.346
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "PRT",
@@ -708,8 +708,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 5.872,
-      "champ": 2.31
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "COL",
@@ -719,8 +719,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 10.428,
-      "champ": 3.84
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "NLD",
@@ -730,8 +730,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.134,
-      "champ": 2.228
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "ECU",
@@ -741,8 +741,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 1.072,
-      "champ": 0.252
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "DEU",
@@ -752,8 +752,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 2.45,
-      "champ": 0.718
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "NOR",
@@ -763,8 +763,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.522,
-      "champ": 2.252
+      "final": 11.666,
+      "champ": 3.54
     },
     {
       "iso": "HRV",
@@ -774,8 +774,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 1.068,
-      "champ": 0.288
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "JPN",
@@ -785,8 +785,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 1.412,
-      "champ": 0.354
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "BEL",
@@ -796,8 +796,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.552,
-      "champ": 2.302
+      "final": 7.942,
+      "champ": 2.658
     },
     {
       "iso": "CHE",
@@ -807,8 +807,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.39,
-      "champ": 1.45
+      "final": 9.16,
+      "champ": 2.646
     },
     {
       "iso": "MEX",
@@ -818,8 +818,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.42,
-      "champ": 1.486
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "SEN",
@@ -829,8 +829,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.754,
-      "champ": 0.152
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "PRY",
@@ -840,8 +840,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.546,
-      "champ": 0.082
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "AUT",
@@ -851,8 +851,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.336,
-      "champ": 0.07
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "MAR",
@@ -862,8 +862,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 3.216,
-      "champ": 0.908
+      "final": 5.776,
+      "champ": 1.668
     },
     {
       "iso": "CAN",
@@ -873,8 +873,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.764,
-      "champ": 0.15
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "AUS",
@@ -884,8 +884,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.572,
-      "champ": 0.086
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "DZA",
@@ -895,8 +895,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.184,
-      "champ": 0.018
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "USA",
@@ -906,8 +906,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.878,
-      "champ": 0.132
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "SWE",
@@ -917,8 +917,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.09,
-      "champ": 0.014
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "EGY",
@@ -928,8 +928,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.19,
-      "champ": 0.026
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "CIV",
@@ -939,8 +939,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.082,
-      "champ": 0.004
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "COD",
@@ -950,8 +950,8 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.066,
-      "champ": 0.006
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "BIH",
@@ -961,7 +961,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 100,
-      "final": 0.014,
+      "final": 0,
       "champ": 0
     },
     {
@@ -972,7 +972,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.008,
+      "final": 0,
       "champ": 0
     },
     {
@@ -983,7 +983,7 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 0.002,
+      "final": 0,
       "champ": 0
     },
     {
@@ -1007,8 +1007,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 44.38,
-      "champ": 25.498
+      "final": 49.85,
+      "champ": 26.264
     },
     {
       "iso": "ESP",
@@ -1018,8 +1018,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 37.116,
-      "champ": 23.35
+      "final": 46.512,
+      "champ": 28.436
     },
     {
       "iso": "FRA",
@@ -1029,8 +1029,8 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 34.208,
-      "champ": 20.352
+      "final": 39.77,
+      "champ": 22.368
     },
     {
       "iso": "GBR",
@@ -1040,63 +1040,63 @@
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 19.732,
-      "champ": 9.326
+      "final": 29.324,
+      "champ": 12.42
     },
     {
-      "iso": "COL",
-      "name": "Colombia",
-      "confed": "CONMEBOL",
+      "iso": "NOR",
+      "name": "Norway",
+      "confed": "UEFA",
       "advance": 100,
-      "p1": 100,
-      "p2": 0,
+      "p1": 0,
+      "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 10.428,
-      "champ": 3.84
+      "final": 11.666,
+      "champ": 3.54
     },
     {
-      "iso": "BEL",
-      "name": "Belgium",
+      "iso": "CHE",
+      "name": "Switzerland",
       "confed": "UEFA",
       "advance": 100,
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.552,
-      "champ": 2.302
+      "final": 9.16,
+      "champ": 2.646
     },
     {
-      "iso": "BRA",
-      "name": "Brazil",
-      "confed": "CONMEBOL",
+      "iso": "BEL",
+      "name": "Belgium",
+      "confed": "UEFA",
       "advance": 100,
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.542,
-      "champ": 2.346
+      "final": 7.942,
+      "champ": 2.658
     },
     {
-      "iso": "NOR",
-      "name": "Norway",
-      "confed": "UEFA",
+      "iso": "MAR",
+      "name": "Morocco",
+      "confed": "CAF",
       "advance": 100,
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.522,
-      "champ": 2.252
+      "final": 5.776,
+      "champ": 1.668
     },
     {
-      "iso": "NLD",
-      "name": "Netherlands",
-      "confed": "UEFA",
+      "iso": "BRA",
+      "name": "Brazil",
+      "confed": "CONMEBOL",
       "advance": 100,
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 6.134,
-      "champ": 2.228
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
       "iso": "PRT",
@@ -1106,56 +1106,56 @@
       "p1": 0,
       "p2": 100,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 5.872,
-      "champ": 2.31
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
-      "iso": "MEX",
-      "name": "Mexico",
-      "confed": "CONCACAF",
+      "iso": "COL",
+      "name": "Colombia",
+      "confed": "CONMEBOL",
       "advance": 100,
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.42,
-      "champ": 1.486
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     },
     {
-      "iso": "CHE",
-      "name": "Switzerland",
+      "iso": "NLD",
+      "name": "Netherlands",
       "confed": "UEFA",
       "advance": 100,
       "p1": 100,
       "p2": 0,
       "p3": 0,
-      "final": 4.39,
-      "champ": 1.45
+      "final": 0,
+      "champ": 0
     }
   ],
   "final_mas_probable": [
     {
       "final": "Argentina vs Spain",
-      "prob": 16.448
+      "prob": 23.424
     },
     {
       "final": "Argentina vs France",
-      "prob": 15.198
+      "prob": 19.692
     },
     {
       "final": "England vs Spain",
-      "prob": 7.336
+      "prob": 13.374
     },
     {
       "final": "England vs France",
-      "prob": 6.794
+      "prob": 11.77
     },
     {
-      "final": "Colombia vs Spain",
-      "prob": 3.93
+      "final": "Norway vs Spain",
+      "prob": 5.536
     },
     {
-      "final": "Colombia vs France",
-      "prob": 3.492
+      "final": "France vs Norway",
+      "prob": 4.658
     }
   ],
   "prediccion_finalistas": "Argentina vs Spain"