Add knockout stage results tracking and condition projections on real outcomes

.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/SKILL.md

@@ -17,6 +17,10 @@ World Cup, using the **Elo rating** of each team plus a **recent-form** adjustme
 - `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json` — the 12 groups, played results and the
   remaining fixtures.
 - `data/knockout-2026.json` — official Round-of-32 to Final bracket structure.
+- `data/knockout-resultados-2026.json` — real results of the knockout rounds already
+  played (Round of 32, Round of 16, …). When present, the projection and the Monte
+  Carlo condition on them: the real winners advance and only the unplayed rounds are
+  predicted/simulated. Add new results here as each round finishes.
 - `data/elo-series-completo-1901-2026.js` — full historical series (195 teams).
 
 **Source:** World Football Elo Ratings (eloratings.net), via the El Atlas chart.
@@ -95,4 +99,6 @@ recent results via `--formA/--formB`. Tested: it does not improve accuracy.
 ## Updating the data
 
 `bash scripts/actualizar.sh` (from repo root) refreshes the live Elo and regenerates
-everything. New match results go into `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json`.
+everything. New group-stage results go into `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json`; new
+knockout results go into `data/knockout-resultados-2026.json` (keyed by bracket match
+id, e.g. `M97`).

.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/backtest-matches.json

@@ -53,8 +53,8 @@
     "exact": true,
     "predScore": "1-1",
     "p1": 0.5767237828343034,
-    "pX": 0.25832693095676523,
-    "p2": 0.1649492862089314
+    "pX": 0.2583269309567652,
+    "p2": 0.16494928620893137
   },
   {
     "group": "A",
@@ -168,7 +168,7 @@
     "predScore": "2-0",
     "p1": 0.6397348695901068,
     "pX": 0.2371109633580704,
-    "p2": 0.1231541670518227
+    "p2": 0.12315416705182271
   },
   {
     "group": "B",
@@ -1344,7 +1344,7 @@
     "hit": true,
     "exact": true,
     "predScore": "0-2",
-    "p1": 0.12196219514229964,
+    "p1": 0.12196219514229965,
     "pX": 0.23639331540889114,
     "p2": 0.6416444894488093
   },

.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/elo-mundial-2026.json

@@ -474,7 +474,7 @@
         "2026": 13
       },
       "in_index": true,
-      "elo_live": 1882,
+      "elo_live": 1881,
       "rank_live": 16,
       "en_name": "Croatia"
     },

.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/data/knockout-resultados-2026.json

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+{
+  "meta": {
+    "descripcion": "Resultados REALES de la fase eliminatoria del Mundial 2026 (32avos y octavos jugados).",
+    "fuente": "Recopilado y cruzado multi-fuente (Yahoo Sports, Al Jazeera, Olympics.com, Wikipedia). Verificado contra la topologia oficial del bracket (knockout-2026.json) y las tablas finales de grupos.",
+    "as_of": "2026-07-08",
+    "generado": "2026-07-08",
+    "nota": "home/away = orientacion real del partido; 'pens' = tanda de penales [local, visitante] cuando hubo empate en el tiempo reglamentario; 'winner' = ISO3 del equipo que avanzo. Cuartos, semis y final todavia no se jugaron.",
+    "rondas_jugadas": ["Round of 32", "Round of 16"]
+  },
+  "played": [
+    { "id": "M73", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "CAN", "away": "ZAF", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "CAN" },
+    { "id": "M74", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "PRY", "away": "DEU", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "pens": [4, 3], "winner": "PRY" },
+    { "id": "M75", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "MAR", "away": "NLD", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "pens": [3, 2], "winner": "MAR" },
+    { "id": "M76", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "BRA", "away": "JPN", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "BRA" },
+    { "id": "M77", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "FRA", "away": "SWE", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "FRA" },
+    { "id": "M78", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "NOR", "away": "CIV", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "NOR" },
+    { "id": "M79", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "MEX", "away": "ECU", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "MEX" },
+    { "id": "M80", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "GBR", "away": "COD", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "GBR" },
+    { "id": "M81", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "USA", "away": "BIH", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "USA" },
+    { "id": "M82", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "BEL", "away": "SEN", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "BEL" },
+    { "id": "M83", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "PRT", "away": "HRV", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "PRT" },
+    { "id": "M84", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "ESP", "away": "AUT", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "ESP" },
+    { "id": "M85", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "CHE", "away": "DZA", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "CHE" },
+    { "id": "M86", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "ARG", "away": "CPV", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "ARG" },
+    { "id": "M87", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "COL", "away": "GHA", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "COL" },
+    { "id": "M88", "round": "Round of 32", "home": "EGY", "away": "AUS", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "pens": [4, 2], "winner": "EGY" },
+
+    { "id": "M89", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "FRA", "away": "PRY", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "FRA" },
+    { "id": "M90", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "MAR", "away": "CAN", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "MAR" },
+    { "id": "M91", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "NOR", "away": "BRA", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "NOR" },
+    { "id": "M92", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "GBR", "away": "MEX", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "GBR" },
+    { "id": "M93", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "ESP", "away": "PRT", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "winner": "ESP" },
+    { "id": "M94", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "BEL", "away": "USA", "home_goals": 4, "away_goals": 1, "winner": "BEL" },
+    { "id": "M95", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "ARG", "away": "EGY", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 2, "winner": "ARG" },
+    { "id": "M96", "round": "Round of 16", "home": "CHE", "away": "COL", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "pens": [4, 3], "winner": "CHE" }
+  ]
+}

.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/genera-predicciones.mjs

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ const eloOf = (iso) => byIso[iso].elo_live ?? byIso[iso].elo_2026;
 const en = (iso) => byIso[iso].en_name ?? byIso[iso].name;
 
 const pct = (x) => x.toFixed(1) + "%";
-const date = fix.meta.generado;
+const date = proj.koMeta?.as_of ?? fix.meta.generado;
 
 // Predicted scoreline + pick for an upcoming match (live Elo).
 function predRow(homeIso, awayIso) {
@@ -89,23 +89,60 @@ if (fix.remaining_fixtures.length === 0 && existsSync(btMatchesPath)) {
   }
 }
 
-// 2) Projected knockout bracket (match by match)
-md += `## 2) Projected knockout bracket (match by match)\n\n`;
 const groupsDone = fix.remaining_fixtures.length === 0;
-md += `Single most-likely path: ${groupsDone ? "the **final** group standings" : "real group results + the most-likely score for the remaining group games"} `;
-md += `${groupsDone ? "set the bracket" : "decide the standings"}; then every knockout tie is predicted with a decisive `;
-md += `score and a winner (in reality many ties go to extra time/penalties; "(tight)" marks the `;
-md += `near coin-flips).\n\n`;
+const realTies = proj.ties.filter((t) => t.real);
+const predTies = proj.ties.filter((t) => !t.real);
+
+// 2) Knockout stage so far: our predictions vs the real results
+let secNum = 2;
+if (realTies.length) {
+  const koHits = realTies.filter((t) => t.hit).length;
+  md += `## ${secNum}) Knockout stage so far: our predictions vs the results\n\n`;
+  md += `The rounds already played are shown with their **real result** and the model's `;
+  md += `pre-match **pick** (favourite by live Elo; knockout ties have no draw). The **Hit** `;
+  md += `column marks where the pick matched who actually advanced. Penalty shootouts are noted `;
+  md += `as _(pens x-y)_.\n\n`;
+  md += `**Scoreboard: the model called ${koHits} of ${realTies.length} knockout ties right `;
+  md += `(${((100 * koHits) / realTies.length).toFixed(1)}%)** so far. ✓ = correct, ✗ = miss.\n\n`;
+  let cr = "";
+  for (const t of realTies) {
+    if (t.round !== cr) {
+      md += `\n### ${t.round}\n\n`;
+      md += `| Match | Result | Advanced | Our pick | Hit |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n`;
+      cr = t.round;
+    }
+    const score = `${t.score}${t.pens ? ` (pens ${t.pens})` : ""}`;
+    md += `| ${t.home} vs ${t.away} | **${score}** | ${t.winner} | ${t.pick} | ${t.hit ? "✓" : "✗"} |\n`;
+  }
+  md += `\n`;
+  secNum++;
+}
+
+// 3) Projected rest of the bracket (match by match)
+const projTitle = realTies.length ? "Projected rest of the bracket (from the quarter-finals)" : "Projected knockout bracket (match by match)";
+md += `## ${secNum}) ${projTitle}\n\n`;
+if (realTies.length) {
+  md += `Single most-likely path from the **eight real quarter-finalists**: every remaining tie is `;
+  md += `predicted with live Elo (decisive score + winner; in reality many go to extra time/penalties, `;
+  md += `"(tight)" marks the near coin-flips).\n\n`;
+} else {
+  md += `Single most-likely path: ${groupsDone ? "the **final** group standings" : "real group results + the most-likely score for the remaining group games"} `;
+  md += `${groupsDone ? "set the bracket" : "decide the standings"}; then every knockout tie is predicted with a decisive `;
+  md += `score and a winner (in reality many ties go to extra time/penalties; "(tight)" marks the `;
+  md += `near coin-flips).\n\n`;
+}
 let curRound = "";
-for (const t of proj.ties) {
+for (const t of predTies) {
   if (t.round !== curRound) { md += `\n### ${t.round}\n\n`; curRound = t.round; }
   md += `- **${t.home} ${t.score} ${t.away}** → advances **${t.winner}**${t.tight ? " _(tight)_" : ""}\n`;
 }
 md += `\n### 🏆 Projected champion: **${proj.champion}**\n\n`;
 md += `Projected final: ${proj.final.home} ${proj.final.score} ${proj.final.away} (winner ${proj.final.winner}, without the actual result).\n\n`;
+secNum++;
 
-// 3) Who advances (Monte Carlo probabilities)
-md += `## 3) Who advances? Group probabilities\n\n`;
+// Who advances (Monte Carlo probabilities)
+md += `## ${secNum}) Who advances? Group probabilities\n\n`;
+secNum++;
 md += `Probability of reaching the Round of 32 (top 2 per group + 8 best third-placed teams), `;
 md += `from ${sim.meta.simulaciones.toLocaleString("en")} Monte Carlo runs. ✓ = group already decided.\n\n`;
 for (const g of Object.keys(sim.grupos)) {
@@ -118,13 +155,14 @@ for (const g of Object.keys(sim.grupos)) {
   md += `\n`;
 }
 
-// 4) Finalist probabilities
-md += `## 4) Finalist probabilities (Monte Carlo)\n\n`;
-md += `From ${sim.meta.simulaciones.toLocaleString("en")} simulations of the whole tournament (official bracket, live Elo).\n\n`;
+// Finalist probabilities
+md += `## ${secNum}) Finalist probabilities (Monte Carlo)\n\n`;
+md += `From ${sim.meta.simulaciones.toLocaleString("en")} simulations${realTies.length ? " conditioned on the real results so far (the eight real quarter-finalists)" : " of the whole tournament (official bracket, live Elo)"}.\n\n`;
 md += `**Most likely final: ${sim.prediccion_finalistas}** `;
 md += `(occurs in ${pct(sim.final_mas_probable[0].prob)} of simulations).\n\n`;
 md += `| Team | Reaches final | Champion |\n|---|---|---|\n`;
-for (const r of sim.finalistas.slice(0, 10)) md += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
+const finalistRows = sim.finalistas.filter((r) => r.final > 0);
+for (const r of (finalistRows.length ? finalistRows : sim.finalistas).slice(0, 10)) md += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
 md += `\n**Most likely finals:**\n\n`;
 for (const p of sim.final_mas_probable) md += `- ${p.final} — ${pct(p.prob)}\n`;
 md += `\n> Finalist probabilities are low and tightly bunched: the model has NO strong favorite, `;
@@ -142,7 +180,8 @@ resumen += `Projected final: **${proj.final.home} ${proj.final.score} ${proj.fin
 resumen += `**Most likely finalists (Monte Carlo):** ${sim.prediccion_finalistas} `;
 resumen += `(${pct(sim.final_mas_probable[0].prob)} of simulations).\n\n`;
 resumen += `| Team | Reaches final | Champion |\n|---|---|---|\n`;
-for (const r of sim.finalistas.slice(0, 6)) resumen += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
+const resumenRows = sim.finalistas.filter((r) => r.final > 0);
+for (const r of (resumenRows.length ? resumenRows : sim.finalistas).slice(0, 6)) resumen += `| ${r.name} | ${pct(r.final)} | ${pct(r.champ)} |\n`;
 resumen += `\nFull detail (${groupsDone ? "our group-stage predictions vs the results" : "every group, every upcoming match"}, the match-by-match bracket) in `;
 resumen += `[**predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md**](predicciones/PREDICCIONES.md).\n`;
 resumen += `<!-- PRED:END -->`;

.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/proyeccion.mjs

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@
  * This is the "predicted bracket" (one concrete path). For probabilities
  * (who is LIKELY to reach the final), see simular.mjs (Monte Carlo).
  */
-import { readFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { readFileSync, existsSync } from "node:fs";
 import { fileURLToPath } from "node:url";
 import { dirname, join } from "node:path";
 import { loadData, predictFromEff, PARAMS } from "./model.mjs";
@@ -18,6 +18,16 @@ export function proyectar() {
   const elo = loadData();
   const fix = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "grupos-resultados-2026.json"), "utf8"));
   const bracket = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "knockout-2026.json"), "utf8"));
+  // Resultados REALES de eliminatorias ya jugadas (opcional). Si existen, se usan
+  // para avanzar de ronda (la proyeccion continua desde los equipos verdaderos).
+  const koPath = join(__dir, "data", "knockout-resultados-2026.json");
+  const koResults = {};
+  let koMeta = null;
+  if (existsSync(koPath)) {
+    const ko = JSON.parse(readFileSync(koPath, "utf8"));
+    koMeta = ko.meta || null;
+    for (const r of ko.played || []) koResults[r.id] = r;
+  }
   const byIso = Object.fromEntries(elo.equipos.map((t) => [t.iso3, t]));
   const HOSTS = new Set(["MEX", "CAN", "USA"]);
   const ha = (iso) => (HOSTS.has(iso) ? PARAMS.HOME_ADV : 0);
@@ -114,10 +124,32 @@ export function proyectar() {
       const home = /^M\d+$/.test(m.home) ? winners[m.home] : resolveSlot(m.home);
       const away = /^M\d+$/.test(m.away) ? winners[m.away] : resolveSlot(m.away);
       if (home == null || away == null) { winners[m.id] = home || away; continue; }
+
+      // Partido ya jugado: usar resultado REAL y comparar con lo que el modelo
+      // habria predicho (pick pre-partido con Elo en vivo).
+      const res = koResults[m.id];
+      if (res) {
+        const real = new Set([res.home, res.away]);
+        if (!real.has(home) || !real.has(away)) {
+          throw new Error(`Resultado real de ${m.id} (${res.home} vs ${res.away}) no coincide con el bracket (${home} vs ${away}).`);
+        }
+        winners[m.id] = res.winner;
+        const pick = predKO(res.home, res.away).winner; // favorito del modelo
+        ties.push({
+          round: roundNames[ri], id: m.id, real: true,
+          home: name(res.home), away: name(res.away),
+          score: `${res.home_goals}-${res.away_goals}`,
+          pens: res.pens ? `${res.pens[0]}-${res.pens[1]}` : null,
+          winner: name(res.winner),
+          pick: name(pick), hit: pick === res.winner,
+        });
+        continue;
+      }
+
       const r = predKO(home, away);
       winners[m.id] = r.winner;
       ties.push({
-        round: roundNames[ri], id: m.id,
+        round: roundNames[ri], id: m.id, real: false,
         home: name(home), away: name(away),
         score: `${r.a}-${r.b}`, tight: r.tight,
         winner: name(r.winner),
@@ -133,5 +165,5 @@ export function proyectar() {
     equipos: tables[g].map((t, i) => ({ pos: i + 1, name: t.name, pts: t.pts, gd: t.gd })),
   };
 
-  return { standings, projectedGroupMatches, ties, roundNames, final: finalTie, champion };
+  return { standings, projectedGroupMatches, ties, roundNames, final: finalTie, champion, koMeta };
 }

.claude/skills/prediccion-mundial-2026/simular.mjs

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
  *
  * Usa elo_live (eloratings.net) para los partidos futuros. Heurística orientativa.
  */
-import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from "node:fs";
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync, existsSync } from "node:fs";
 import { fileURLToPath } from "node:url";
 import { dirname, join } from "node:path";
 import { loadData, predictFromEff, autoForm, PARAMS } from "./model.mjs";
@@ -22,6 +22,15 @@ const ROOT = join(__dir, "..", "..", "..");
 const elo = loadData();
 const fix = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "grupos-resultados-2026.json"), "utf8"));
 const bracket = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(__dir, "data", "knockout-2026.json"), "utf8"));
+// Resultados REALES de eliminatorias ya jugadas: si existen, la simulacion se
+// condiciona a ellos (los ganadores reales avanzan; solo se muestrean las rondas
+// aun no jugadas), de modo que las probabilidades reflejen el bracket verdadero.
+const KO_RESULTS = (() => {
+  const p = join(__dir, "data", "knockout-resultados-2026.json");
+  if (!existsSync(p)) return {};
+  const ko = JSON.parse(readFileSync(p, "utf8"));
+  return Object.fromEntries((ko.played || []).map((r) => [r.id, r.winner]));
+})();
 const byIso = Object.fromEntries(elo.equipos.map((t) => [t.iso3, t]));
 const HOSTS = new Set(["MEX", "CAN", "USA"]);
 const ha = (iso) => (HOSTS.has(iso) ? PARAMS.HOME_ADV : 0);
@@ -161,8 +170,10 @@ function simulate(rnd) {
     for (const m of round) {
       const a = winnerOf(m.home, rnd), b = winnerOf(m.away, rnd);
       if (a == null || b == null) { alive[m.id] = a || b; continue; }
-      alive[m.id] = knockoutWinner(a, b, rnd);
       if (m.id === bracket.final_id) finalists = [a, b];
+      // Ronda ya jugada: el ganador real avanza (no se muestrea).
+      if (KO_RESULTS[m.id]) { alive[m.id] = KO_RESULTS[m.id]; continue; }
+      alive[m.id] = knockoutWinner(a, b, rnd);
     }
   }
   return { tables, thirds, bestThirdGroups, finalists, champion: alive[bracket.final_id] };

README.es.md

@@ -82,8 +82,11 @@ bash scripts/actualizar.sh
 ```
 
 Baja el Elo en vivo de eloratings.net, refresca todo y regenera las predicciones.
-Un **GitHub Action** lo corre **todos los días**. Los resultados de partidos nuevos
-se agregan a `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json` (único paso manual).
+Un **GitHub Action** lo corre **todos los días**. Los resultados nuevos se agregan
+a mano: los de fase de grupos en `data/grupos-resultados-2026.json` y los de
+eliminatorias en `data/knockout-resultados-2026.json` (por id de llave del cuadro).
+Cuando hay resultados de eliminatorias, la proyección y el Monte Carlo se condicionan
+a ellos y solo predicen las rondas que faltan jugar.
 
 ---