probability-forecasting

A quant forecasting system + live API bot for Jump Trading's Probability Cup 2026 — 89th/4,013 (top ~2%). Brier-optimal probabilities, de-vigged odds, Dixon-Coles, calibration loop, and an honest post-mortem.

Distribution prediction model by Probability Boosting TREE method. This framework can be used to predict various types of distributions for target variables, currently normal and gamma distributions are mainly supported.

Football prop forecasting engine. Post-competition review found the calibration layer was making forecasts worse, removing it is documented, measured, and enforced by tests.